MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Bear Threat Reinstated

Price Signal Summary – Equity Bear Threat Reinstated

• A sharp sell-off yesterday in S&P E-Minis reinstates a potential bearish threat with key resistance at 7043.00 intact, the Jan 28 high and bull trigger. Attention turns to the key support at 6751.50, the Feb 6 low. The medium-term trend condition in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains bullish and this week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce the bull theme. The initial move higher yesterday delivered a print above the 6100.00 handle.
• Short-term weakness in GBPUSD is considered corrective. The recovery from the Feb 6 low highlights a short-term bull reversal and signals the end of the corrective cycle between Jan 27 - Feb 6. A bearish tone in USDJPY remains intact. Attention is on key short-term support at 152.10, the Jan 27 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and strengthen a bear cycle. The trend structure in AUDUSD remains bullish. Fresh cycle highs this week reinforce current conditions and the move higher confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. 
• A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact. However, the move lower from the Jan 29 high continues to highlight a corrective cycle. Attention is on support at the 20-day EMA, at $62.58 (pierced). Recent gains in Gold highlights a retracement of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 sell-off. The next two resistance points to monitor are $5139.9 and $5314.0, Fibonacci retracement levels.
• A bull mode in Bund futures remains intact and the contract continues to appreciate. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of 128.89, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 26 - Dec 22 bear leg. Gilt futures continue to appreciate, and this week’s gains have resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA, at 91.21. The clear break of the average highlights a stronger reversal and signals scope for an extension towards 91.73. 

[GLOBAL] MNI Tech Trend Monitor - Highlighting Longer-Term Trends:

• Refreshing the MNI Tech Trend Monitor, Adding USDZAR, USDCNH and the e-mini S&P chart, while refreshing levels for Gold, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/HUF, USD/MXN, the European Banking Stock Index (SX7E) as well as UK Gilts.

See full document here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_Tech_Trend_Monitor_Jan26_cef40b4ef1.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.2081 High Jan 27 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 1.2007 76.4% retracement of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.1961 61.8% retracement of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.1929 High Feb 10
• PRICE: 1.1860 @ 06:21GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: 1.1826 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1766 Low Feb 06 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.1693 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 -0 27 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.1670 Low Jan 22  

A bullish theme in EURUSD remains intact. Strong gains on Feb 9 highlight a stronger short-term bull reversal that suggests the recent bearish correction has concluded. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant M/T uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 1.1961 and 1.2007, Fibonacci retracement points. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.2081, the Jan 27 high. Key short-term support lies at 1.1766, the Feb 6 low.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.3889 1.00 proj of the Nov 4 - Jan 6 - Jan 19 price swing     
• RES 3: 1.3868 High Jan 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3733/3814 High Feb 4 / high Jan 30  
• RES 1: 1.3712 High Feb 11
• PRICE: 1.3597 @ 06:34 GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: 1.3587 Low Feb 9
• SUP 2: 1.3521/09 50-day EMA / Low Feb 6
• SUP 3: 1.3458 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - 27 upleg 
• SUP 4: 1.3402 Low Jan 22  

Short-term weakness in GBPUSD is considered corrective. The recovery from the Feb 6 low highlights a short-term bull reversal and signals the end of the corrective cycle between Jan 27 - Feb 6. Note that MA studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. The next resistance to watch is 1.3733, the Feb 4 high. Clearance of this level would expose 1.3868, the Jan 27 high and a bull trigger. Key S/T support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3521. 

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs 

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17   
• RES 3: 0.8769 61.8% retracement of the Nov 14 - Feb 4 bear leg 
• RES 2: 0.8746 High Jan 21 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8728 100-dma
• PRICE: 0.8718 @ 07:12 GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: 0.8688/8613 20-day EMA / Low Feb 04 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
• SUP 3: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25 
• SUP 4: 0.8544 50.0% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle

EURGBP is trading closer to its recent highs. The latest recovery still appears corrective, however, recent gains have exposed key short-term resistance at 0.8746, the Jan 21 high. A clear break of this level would highlight a potential trend reversal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.8613, the Feb 4 low and bear trigger.       

USDJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 159.45 High Jan 14 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: 157.76 High Feb 9
• RES 2: 155.62 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 154.65 High Feb 11  
• PRICE: 153.45 @ 07:07 GMT Feb 13  
• SUP 1: 152.27/152.10 Low Feb 11 / Low Jan 27 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 151.98 38.2% of the Apr 22 ‘25 - Jan 14 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 151.78 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 ‘25 low
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 ‘25 

A bearish tone in USDJPY remains intact. Attention is on key short-term support at 152.10, the Jan 27 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and strengthen a bear cycle that started Jan 14. Note that a trendline support, drawn from the Apr 22 ‘25 low, lies at 151.78 and also marks a key support. Initial resistance to watch is at 155.62, the 20-day EMA.  

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Channel Support Intact For Now

• RES 4: 187.71 3.000 proj of the Oct 17 - Oct 30 - Nov 5 price swing
• RES 3: 186.87 High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 183.80/186.36 20-day EMA / High Feb 9
• RES 1: 183.05 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 181.85 @ 07:19 GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: 181.04 Base of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low
• SUP 2: 180.10 Low Dec 5 ‘25 
• SUP 3: 179.30 23.6% of the Feb 28 ‘25 - Jan 23 bull cycle  
• SUP 4: 178.82 High Oct 30 ‘25  

The extension lower in EURJPY yesterday resulted in a print below bull channel support at 181.04. The channel is drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low and represents an important M/T support. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal. This support area remains intact for now. A recovery and a breach of 183.80, the 20-day EMA, would signal a potential S/T reversal. This would also highlight the start of a fresh bull cycle inside the bull channel.          

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.7208 61.8% of the Feb 25 ‘21 - Apr 9 ‘25 bear leg   
• RES 3: 0.7186 2.236 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 0.7158 High Feb 2 2023
• RES 1: 0.7147 High Feb 12
• PRICE: 0.7066 @ 08:05 GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: 0.7007 Low Feb 9 
• SUP 2: 0.6897 Low Feb 6 and key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 0.6834 Low Jan 23 
• SUP 4: 0.6821 50-day EMA

The trend structure in AUDUSD remains bullish. Fresh cycle highs this week reinforce current conditions and the move higher confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. Potential is seen for a move towards 0.7186 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial key support lies at 0.6897, the Feb 6 low.  

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present  

• RES 4: 1.3929 High Jan 16 and a reversal trigger     
• RES 3: 1.3879 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 1.3747 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3664/3725 20-day EMA / High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3615 @ 08:08 GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: 1.3482 Low Jan 30 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 ‘24
• SUP 3: 1.3400 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2025 uptrend 
• SUP 4: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 2024     

Despite recent gains, a bear threat in USDCAD remains present and sights are on key support at 1.3482, the Jan 30 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards the 1.3400 handle, a Fibonacci retracement.  Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3725, the Feb 2 high. A move through this hurdle would suggest scope for a stronger S/T bull cycle instead.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H6) Continues To Appreciate                      

• RES 4: 129.89 2.618 proj of the Jan 23 - 29 - Feb 3 price swing   
• RES 3: 129.55 High Nov 26 ‘25 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 129.24 High Dec 1
• RES 1: 129.11 Intraday high            
• PRICE: 129.06 @ 06:02 GMT Feb 13 
• SUP 1: 128.58 High Jan 19 and a recent breakout point             
• SUP 2: 128.23 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 128.03 Low Feb 9
• SUP 4: 127.51 Low Jan 23 and a key support 

A bull mode in Bund futures remains intact and the contract continues to appreciate. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of 128.89, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 26 - Dec 22 bear leg. The break signals scope for an extension towards 129.55, the Nov 26 ‘25 high and the next key resistance point. Initial firm support top watch lies at 128.23, the 50-day EMA. A break would signal a possible top.                       

BOBL TECHS: (H6) Northbound       

• RES 4: 117.260 1.764 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 2 - 3 price swing       
• RES 3: 117.140 High Nov 26 ‘25 and a key resistance  
• RES 2: 117.020 High Nov 28 ‘25  
• RES 1: 116.960 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 116.930 @ 06:13 GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: 116.690 High Feb 2 
• SUP 2: 116.528 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 116.290 Low Feb 3  
• SUP 4: 116.140 Low Jan 23 and key support  

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and this week’s fresh short-term cycle highs, reinforce current conditions. The contract has cleared 116.805, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 26 - Dec 10 bear leg. The clear break of this level paves the way for a climb towards 117.140, the Nov 26 ‘25 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 116.528 the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average would signal a possible reversal.              

SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Breaches Resistance             

• RES 4: 107.060 High Nov 21 ‘25 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 107.030 High Nov 26
• RES 2: 107.000 Round number resistance   
• RES 1: 106.970 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 106.960 @ 05:45 GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: 106.880/815 20-day EMA / Low Feb 3 and a key S/T support  
• SUP 2: 106.760 Low Jan 23 
• SUP 3: 106.725 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 106.690 Low Dec 18 & 22

A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and today’s fresh short-term cycle reinforces the bull theme. The contract has traded through 106.959, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 bear leg. A clear break of this price point would signal scope for an extension towards 107.060, the Nov 21 ‘25 high. Initial firm support to watch is 106.880, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would highlight a possible reversal.                   

GILT TECHS: (H6) Has Cleared The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 92.20 76.4% retracement of the Jan 14 - Feb 9 bear cycle
• RES 3: 92.13 High Jan 22     
• RES 2: 91.73 61.8% retracement of the Jan 14 - Feb 9 bear cycle
• RES 1: 91.51 Intraday high      
• PRICE: 91.45 @ 08:03 GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: 91.10 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 90.62/89.76 Low Feb 11 / 9 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 3: 89.73 1.382 proj of the Jan 14 - 20 - 22 price swing   
• SUP 4: 89.52 1.500 proj of the Jan 14 - 20 - 22 price swing      

Gilt futures continue to appreciate and this week’s gains have resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA, at 91.21. The clear break of the average highlights a stronger reversal and signals scope for an extension towards 91.73, a Fibonacci retracement point. It is still possible that the latest recovery is a correction. Initial firm support to watch lies at 90.62, the Feb 11 low. Clearance of this level would expose key support at 89.76, the Feb 9 low.                  

BTP TECHS: (H6) Bull Cycle Extension        

• RES 4: 123.08 3.000 proj of the Dec 10 - 17 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 122.46 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 122.16 2.236 proj of the Dec 10 - 17 - 22 price swing
• RES 1: 122.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 121.90 @ 07:59 Feb 13
• SUP 1: 121.13 20-day EMA           
• SUP 2: 120.68 Trendline drawn from the Dec 10 low 
• SUP 3: 120.36 Low Jan 20
• SUP 4: 119.72 Low Jan 6

A bullish theme in BTP futures remains intact and this week’s break higher reinforces current trend conditions and confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. The contract has cleared resistance at 121.37, the Nov 13 ‘25 high. This paves the way for an extension towards 122.16 next, a Fibonacci projection. Short-term trendline support is at 120.68 - drawn from the Dec 10 low.                         

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H6) Monitoring Support         

• RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance     
• RES 3: 6172.00 1.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 12 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 6134.00 1.382 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 12 - 18 price swing
• RES 1: 6108.00 High Feb 12      
• PRICE: 6006.00 @ 06:44 GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: 5986.90 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 5901.38/5865.00 50-day EMA / Low Feb 06
• SUP 3: 5838.00 Low Jan 20 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 5750.00 Low Dec 23   

The medium-term trend condition in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains bullish and this week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce the bull theme. The initial move higher yesterday delivered a print above the 6100.00 handle. A clear breach of this hurdle would open 6134.00, a Fibonacci projection point. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 5901.38. Clearance of this average would highlight a short-term top. For now, a move down is considered corrective.              

E-MINI S&P: (H6) Reversal Lower Exposes Key Support  

• RES 4: 7080.92 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing    
• RES 3: 7055.73 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 7043.00 High Jan 28 and bull trigger  
• RES 1: 6922.20/7011.50 50-day EMA / High Feb 11 
• PRICE: 6828.25 @ 06:31 GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: 6751.50 Low Feb 6 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 6733.00 Low Nov 25 ‘25 
• SUP 3: 6691.56 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Jan 28 bull leg
• SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 21 ‘25 and a key medium-term support   

A sharp sell-off yesterday in S&P E-Minis reinstates a potential bearish threat with key resistance at 7043.00 intact, the Jan 28 high and bull trigger. Attention turns to the key support at 6751.50, the Feb 6 low, where a break would highlight a top and a stronger short-term reversal. This would open 6691.56, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial resistance to watch is at 6922.20, the 50-day EMA.    

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J6) Approaching A Key Support Zone           

• RES 4: $75.93 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 5 - 14 - 19 price swing  
• RES 3: $73.33 - High Jun 23 ‘25 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 2: $72.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $70.72 - High Feb 11  
• PRICE: $67.44 @ 07:13 GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: $66.88 - 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: $64.88 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $62.59 - Low Jan 19 
• SUP 4: $59.44 - Low Jan 5 

A bull theme in Brent futures is intact. Resistance at $70.58, the Jan 29 high and a bull trigger, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for an extension towards the $72.00 handle. The pullback from this week’s high appears corrective - for now. Support to watch lies at $66.88, the 20-day EMA, and $64.88, the 50-day EMA. The area between these two EMAs marks a key support zone.             

WTI TECHS: (H6) Remains Above Support For Now       

• RES 4: $71.66 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 7 - 14 - 20 price swing 
• RES 3: $69.80 - High Jun 23 ‘25 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 2: $68.00 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $66.48 - High Jan 30 and the bull trigger     
• PRICE: $62.69 @ 07:21 GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: $62.58/60.87 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: $58.53 - Low Jan 20 
• SUP 3: $55.65 - Low Jan 7
• SUP 4: $54.56 - Low Apr 9 ‘25 and a key support 

A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact. However, the move lower from the Jan 29 high continues to highlight a corrective cycle. Attention is on support at the 20-day EMA, at $62.58 (pierced). The 50-day EMA lies at $60.87. A clear breach of the 50-day average would highlight a stronger reversal and open $58.53, the Jan 20 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $66.48, the Jan 30 high. Clearance of it would resume the uptrend.        

GOLD TECHS: Retracement Mode         

• RES 4: $5451.0 - High Jan 30
• RES 3: $5314.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 pullback
• RES 2: $5139.9 - 61.8% retracement of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 pullback 
• RES 1: $5119.3 - High Feb 11                       
• PRICE: $4973.2 @ 07:33 GMT Feb 13 
• SUP 1: $4655.7 - Low Feb 6 
• SUP 2: $4403.0 - Low Feb 2 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: $4274.7 - Low Dec 31 ‘25 and a key support 
• SUP 4: $4170.3 - Low Dec 9

Recent gains in Gold highlights a retracement of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 sell-off. The next two resistance points to monitor are $5139.9 and $5314.0, Fibonacci retracement levels. Note that the sharp sell-off from the Jan 29 high still highlights a potential top in the L/T trend and from a S/T perspective, an unwinding of the recent extreme overbought condition. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on $4403.0, the Feb 2 low.                           

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Outlook 

• RES 4: $121.654 - High Jan 30 and key resistance 
• RES 3: $106.895 - Low Jan 29
• RES 2: $100.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $85.831 - 20-day EMA     
• PRICE: $78.629 @ 08:16 GMT Feb 13
• SUP 1: $64.098 - Low Feb 6
• SUP 2: $61.136 - 0.618 proj of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 - 4 price swing     
• SUP 3: $53.797 - 0.618 proj of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 - 4 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Former key resistance area and major support 

The sharp sell-off in Silver from the Feb 4 high confirmed a resumption of the bear leg that started on Jan 29. Note that the move lower since Jan 29 still highlights an unwinding of the recent extreme overbought condition. The metal has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, signalling scope for a deeper retracement, and sights are on $61.136 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 85.831, the 20-day EMA.