MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Bearish as Support Breaks

Price Signal Summary – Bunds Bearish as Support Breaks

• A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and price is trading above the 20- and 50- day EMAs. Note that recent gains signal the likely end of the corrective cycle between Oct 30 and Nov 21. A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price has recently cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs, signalling scope for a stronger recovery.
• EURUSD continues to trade closer to its recent highs and a bull cycle remains intact for now. The recent breach of key short-term resistance at 1.1656, the Nov 13 high and a bull trigger, highlights a potential reversal and opens 1.1694 next. The current bear cycle in EURGBP appears corrective - for now. Note that the cross has breached the 50-day EMA, currently at 0.8752. The break highlights a stronger reversal and a bear threat. The latest pause in EURJPY appears to be a flag formation - a trend continuation signal that reinforces the bull theme. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too. 
• The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, the set-up remains bullish. The bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Short-term gains in WTI futures appear corrective - for now. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.
• Bund futures remain in a bear-mode cycle following last week’s impulsive sell-off and Monday’s bearish acceleration. The contract has traded through the 128.00 handle, paving the way for an extension towards 127.19 next. The extension lower in Gilt futures yesterday exposes the next important support at 90.53, the Nov 25 and 26 low. A breach of this level would undermine a recent bull theme and instead signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86. 

[CROSS ASSET] MNI Tech Trend Monitor - November Refresh

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for USDMXN, EURHUF, EURGBP, Bitcoin and the USD Index as well as refreshing levels for Spot Gold, Silver, USDJPY, UK Gilt Yields and the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/TechTrendMonitorNov.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs    

• RES 4: 1.1779 High Oct 1   
• RES 3: 1.1747 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 1: 1.1694 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg 
• PRICE: 1.1646 @ 06:03 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 1.1605 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1547 Low Nov 26
• SUP 3: 1.1491/1469 Low Nov 21
• SUP 4: 1.1469 Low Nov 5 and the bear trigger  

EURUSD continues to trade closer to its recent highs and a bull cycle remains intact for now. The recent breach of key short-term resistance at 1.1656, the Nov 13 high and a bull trigger, highlights a potential reversal and opens 1.1694 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this retracement point would strengthen the developing bull theme. Initial support to watch is 1.1605, the 20-day EMA. A breach of the EMA would be bearish.     

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Flag     

• RES 4: 1.3471 High Oct 17   
• RES 3: 1.3452 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3416 High Oct 21
• RES 1: 1.3385 High Dec 04
• PRICE: 1.3329 @ 16:31 GMT Dec 8
• SUP 1: 1.3267 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 1.3235 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3180/25 Low Dec 2 / Low Nov 26 
• SUP 4: 1.3038/10 Low Nov 20 / Low Nov 4 & 5 and the bear trigger       

A bull theme in GBPUSD remains intact. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. The breach of  the 50-day EMA undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. This paves the way for an extension towards 1.3452, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support is seen at 1.3235, the 20-day EMA. A move below this average would be a bearish development.  

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play 

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Nov 20   
• RES 3: 0.8818 High Nov 26 
• RES 2: 0.8802 High Dec 2 and a key near-term resistance 
• RES 1: 0.8769 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8736 @ 06:32 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 0.8722 Low Dec 4
• SUP 2: 0.8706 76.4% retracement of the Oct 8 - Nov 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8670 Low Oct 21   
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

The current bear cycle in EURGBP appears corrective - for now. Note that the cross has breached the 50-day EMA, currently at 0.8752. The break highlights a stronger reversal and a bear threat, plus scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.8706, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8802, the Dec 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development and signal a resumption of the uptrend.         

USDJPY TECHS: Support To Watch Lies At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 156.58/157.89 High Nov 28 / 20 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 156.01 @ 06:49 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 154.35 Low Dec 5 
• SUP 2: 153.58 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 152.82 Low Nov 7 
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 

Recent weakness in USDJPY is considered corrective and the deeper retracement has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Key short-term support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 153.58. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. A resumption of the uptrend would open 158.00.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 184.34 2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 3: 184.11 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 2: 183.07 2.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 182.01 High Nov 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 181.65 @ 06:57 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 180.30 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 178.98/178.31 Low Nov 14 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 177.15 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 175.98 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low

The latest pause in EURJPY appears to be a flag formation - a trend continuation signal that reinforces the bull theme. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of the trend would signal scope for a climb towards 184.11, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. First key support lies at 180.30, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Northbound     

• RES 4: 0.6723 High Oct 21 ‘24   
• RES 3: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 0.6660 High Sep 18
• RES 1: 0.6649 High Dec 5 & 8
• PRICE: 0.6638 @ 07:57 GMT Dec 9 
• SUP 1: 0.6580/6551 High Nov 13 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6517 Low Nov 27 
• SUP 3: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21 
• SUP 4: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger 

A strong impulsive bull wave in AUDUSD remains intact. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. The pair has also printed 10 consecutive sessions of higher highs. 0.6640, 76.4% of the Sep 17 - Nov 21 bear leg, has been pierced This opens 0.6707, the Sep 17 high and key resistance. Key support to watch is at 0.6551, 20-day EMA.            

USDCAD TECHS: Bull Channel Support Breached

• RES 4: 1.4140 High Nov 5 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 1.4051 High Nov 28 
• RES 2: 1.3939/3984 Low Nov 28 / 20-day EMA  
• RES 1: 1.3888 Low Oct 29  
• PRICE: 1.3855 @ 08:03 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 1.3800 Low Dec 08
• SUP 2: 1.3769 61.8% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Sep17 
• SUP 4: 1.3682 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle  

A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact and last Friday’s strong sell-off reinforced current conditions. The pair has breached an important support at 1.3950, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. The break highlights a stronger bear cycle and signals scope for an extension towards 1.3769 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3984, 20-day EMA.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H6) Bear Leg Extends                      

• RES 4: 129.55 High Nov 26 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 129.24 High Dec 1    
• RES 2: 128.82 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 128.08/75 High Dec 8 / High Dec 3 and a key resistance            
• PRICE: 127.39 @ 05:40 GMT Dec 9 
• SUP 1: 127.28 Low Dec 8         
• SUP 2: 127.19 2.382 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing 
• SUP 3: 127.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 126.81 2.764 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing

Bund futures remain in a bear-mode cycle following last week’s impulsive sell-off and Monday’s bearish acceleration. The contract has traded through the 128.00 handle, paving the way for an extension towards 127.19 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is 128.75, the Dec 3 high. Note that the contract has entered oversold territory. A corrective bounce would allow the oversold condition to unwind.              

BOBL TECHS: (H6) Oversold But Remains In A Bear Mode Condition        

• RES 4: 117.140 High Nov 26 and key resistance       
• RES 3: 117.070 High Nov 27  
• RES 2: 116.960 High Dec 1   
• RES 1: 116.320/770 High Dec 8 / 3   
• PRICE: 115.880 @ 05:55 GMT Dec 9 
• SUP 1: 115.870 Low Dec 8 
• SUP 2: 115.845.3.500 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing  
• SUP 3: 115.801 3.618 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.747 3.764 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing

The trend theme in Bobl futures is bearish - last week’s sell-off plus Monday’s extension, reinforces a bear theme. Price last week breached support 116.790, the Nov 14 and 20 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started mid-October. Sights are on 115.845 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend is oversold, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. First important resistance is at 116.770, the Dec 3 high.     

SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Impulsive Bear Wave Extends        

• RES 4: 106.975 High Dec 1 
• RES 3: 106.945 High Dec 3 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 2: 106.885 Low Dec 2   
• RES 1: 106.835 High Dec 8  
• PRICE: 106.685 @ 06:01 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 106.680 Low Dec 8  
• SUP 2: 106.655 2.000 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing
• SUP 3: 106.621 2.236 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing
• SUP 4: 106.600 2.382 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing 

A sharp sell-off in Schatz futures last week and a bearish start to this week’s session, confirms a continuation of a bear cycle that started mid-October.  Note that on the continuation chart, MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 106.655 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 106.945, the Dec 3 high. A corrective bounce would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind.              

GILT TECHS: (H6) Monitoring Support                   

• RES 4: 92.55 High Nov 11 
• RES 3: 92.31 High Nov 12          
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.16/93 High Dec 8 / High Nov 27      
• PRICE: 90.70 @ Close Dec 8
• SUP 1: 90.62/90.53 Low Dec 8 / Low Nov 25 & 26       
• SUP 2: 90.28 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.86 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger     

The extension lower in Gilt futures yesterday exposes the next important support at 90.53, the Nov 25 and 26 low. A breach of this level would undermine a recent bull theme and instead signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86, the Nov 19 low and a bear trigger. For bulls, a resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high. Initial resistance to watch is 91.93, the Nov 27 high.               

BTP TECHS: (H6) Clears A Key Short-Term Support      

• RES 4: 121.33 High Oct 21 and a key resistance area 
• RES 3: 121.37 High Nov 13 
• RES 2: 121.24 High Nov 26 
• RES 1: 120.17/77 Low Nov 20 / High Dec 3   
• PRICE: 119.43 @ Close Dec 8
• SUP 1: 119.42 Intraday low           
• SUP 2: 119.30 1.618 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing  
• SUP 3: 119.12 1.764 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 118.84 2.000 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing

BTP futures have traded through an important support at 120.17, the Nov 20 low. This highlights the fact that a bearish phase remains in play for now, signalling scope for a deeper short-term retracement. The impulsive sell-off yesterday opens 119.30 next, a Fibonacci projection. The contract is oversold, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is 120.17, the Nov 20 low.                      

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Theme    

• RES 4: 5858.59 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing       
• RES 3: 5825.00 High Nov 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 5800.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 5742.40/5755.00 76.4% of Nov 13 - 21 bear leg / High Dec 5         
• PRICE: 5728.00 @ 06:30 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 5668.72 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 5626.00 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5518.00 Low Nov 25
• SUP 4: 5475.00 Low Nov 21 and the bear trigger       

A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price has recently cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs, signalling scope for a stronger recovery. Sights are on 5742.40 next (pierced), 76.4% of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg. Clearance of this price point would pave the way for an extension towards 5825.00, the Nov 13 high and a key resistance. First key support lies at 5626.00, the 50-day EMA.               

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Sights Are On The Key Resistance                

• RES 4: 7000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 6918.50 High Oct 31
• RES 1: 6905.00 High Dec 5    
• PRICE: 6862.50 @ 07:22 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 6802.68 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 6753.26 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 6674.50 Low Nov 25 
• SUP 4: 6525.00 Low Nov 21 and a key support

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and price is trading above the 20- and 50- day EMAs. Note that recent gains signal the likely end of the corrective cycle between Oct 30 and Nov 21. A continuation higher would highlight potential for a move towards the key resistance and bull trigger at 6953.75, the Oct 30 high. Key support lies at 6525.00, the Nov 21 low. First support is at 6802.68, the 20-day EMA.      

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G6) Bear Threat Remains Present            

• RES 4: $70.86 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 17 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.33 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $68.86 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.25 - High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $62.45 @ 07:09 GMT Dec 9 
• SUP 1: $59.93 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.92 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $58.11 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.22 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

Trend conditions in Brent futures are unchanged - the move down since Oct 24 highlights a bearish theme. A resumption of weakness would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.93, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bear cycle. Key short-term resistance to watch has been defined at $65.25, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this level would instead signal scope for a stronger correction.       

WTI TECHS: (F6) Bearish Outlook          

• RES 4: $71.38 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.16 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.33 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $61.84 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $58.80 @ 07:18 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: $55.99 - Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $55.33 - Low May 1
• SUP 3: $54.72 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.53 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

Short-term gains in WTI futures appear corrective - for now. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear leg would open the key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Key short-term resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.      

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Trend Theme          

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4264.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 20 - 28 correction                   
• PRICE: $4179.8 @ 07:23 GMT Dec 9 
• SUP 1: $4149.6/4037.3 - 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3760.9 - Low Sep 29 

The trend condition in Gold is unchanged, the set-up remains bullish. The bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $4037.3. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.                       

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence    

• RES 4: $60.852 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing 
• RES 3: $60.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $59.563 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: $59.334 - High Dec 5   
• PRICE: $58.335 @ 08:11 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: $54.398 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $50.833/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28 
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27  

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and price is trading just below its recent trend highs. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the uptrend, maintaining the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The move above $55.00 signals scope for a climb towards $59.563 next, a Fibonacci projection. Sights are also on the $60.00 psychological handle. Initial support lies at $54.398, the 20-day EMA.