MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS- Bullish Gilt Phase Still in Play

Price Signal Summary – Bullish Gilt Phase Still in Play

• Monday’s initial sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract and breach of support at 5948.00, the Jan 27 low, continues to highlight a possible short-term reversal threat. If correct, it suggests that the latest bounce is a correction. Eurostoxx 50 futures have recovered from Monday’s low. However, the sharp reversal lower earlier this week does highlight a potential bearish threat that would signal the start of a corrective cycle.
• Gains this week in GBPUSD have resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA and delivered a print above 1.2503, the 50-day EMA, and 1.2523, the Jan 27 high. A bearish theme in USDJPY remains intact and Wednesday’s move down reinforces current conditions. The sell-off expands the downside range, with the pair narrowing the proximity with the December low. AUDUSD continues to trade above Monday’s low. Despite the latest bounce, the trend structure remains bearish. Monday’s cycle low confirmed a continuation of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.  
• A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. This week’s appreciation confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too. Recent weakness in WTI futures marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.27 (pierced).
• Bund futures remain in a bull cycle and the contract traded higher yesterday. Price has recently cleared resistance at 132.22, the Jan 22 high, and is through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A bullish phase in Gilt futures remains in play, signalling scope for a continuation higher near-term. This week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The contract has traded through 93.09, the Dec 20 high. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 6   
• RES 3: 1.0594 Dec 9 ‘24
• RES 2: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.0442 High Feb 5 and the 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0387 @ 06:12 GMT Feb 6 
• SUP 1: 1.0272/0141 Low Feb 4 / 3 
• SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0031 2.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing 
• SUP 4: 0.9947 76.4% of the Sep 28 ‘22 - Jul 18 ’23 bull leg 

EURUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. A bullish candle formation on Monday - a hammer - signals a potential reversal. However, additional reinforcing price evidence is required to signal a turn in the trend. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The 20-day EMA has been pierced and the focus is on 1.0442, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would be a bullish development. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Has Breached Resistance     

• RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19
• RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7 
• RES 1: 1.2550 High Feb 5
• PRICE: 1.2487 @ 06:26 GMT Feb 6
• SUP 1: 1.2420/2249 20-day EMA / Low Jan 3   
• SUP 2: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
• SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing    

Gains this week in GBPUSD have resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA and delivered a print above 1.2503, the 50-day EMA, and 1.2523, the Jan 27 high. A continuation higher would signal scope for a move towards 1.2610, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 1.2249, the Jan 3 low. A break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support lies at 1.2420, the 20-day EMA.             

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present               

• RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 0.8421 High Jan 27  
• RES 2: 0.8364 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8336 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 high-low range  
• PRICE: 0.8320@ 06:36 GMT Feb 6 
• SUP 1: 0.8248 Low Feb 3
• SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support  
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range   
• SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg 

EURGBP remains above Monday’s low, for now. The bear cycle that started Jan 20 is in play and Monday’s initial sell-off strengthens a bearish threat. A resumption of weakness would open the first key support at 0.8223, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, the 20-day EMA is seen as a key short-term resistance - at 0.8364. A clear break of the average would be a bullish development.  

USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Trend Needle Points South  

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: 158.08 High Jan 15 
• RES 2: 156.75 High Jan 23 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 153.72/155.30 Low Jan  27 / 20-day EMA       
• PRICE: 152.54 @ 06:50 GMT Feb 6
• SUP 1: 151.82 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 151.72 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 151.06 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 149.69 Low Dec 9     

A bearish theme in USDJPY remains intact and Wednesday’s move down reinforces current conditions. The sell-off expands the downside range, with the pair narrowing the proximity with the December low. Sights are on 151.06, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 155.30, the 20-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 156.75, the Jan 23 high, where a break would highlight a bullish reversal.         

EURJPY TECHS: Heading South                      

• RES 4: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 164.08 High Jan 24   
• RES 2: 161.78 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 160.70 High Feb 4
• PRICE: 158.60 @ 07:10 GMT Feb 6  
• SUP 1: 157.92 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 156.99 Low Dec 4     
• SUP 3: 156.18 Low Dec 3 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24   

A bear threat in EURJPY remains present and this week’s move down reinforces current conditions. An important retracement point at 158.24, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for an extension towards 156.18, the Dec 3 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch, and a pivot level, is 161.78, the 50-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish      

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 
• RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13               
• RES 2: 0.6331 High Jan 24 and a key resistance   
• RES 1: 0.6304 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6263 @ 07:57 GMT Feb 6 
• SUP 1: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.5931 1.764 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD continues to trade above Monday’s low. Despite the latest bounce, the trend structure remains bearish. Monday’s cycle low confirmed a continuation of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of the bear leg would open 0.6045, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 0.6304, the 50-day EMA, and 0.6331, the Jan 24. A clear break of both levels would alter the picture.    

USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Intact For Now    

• RES 4: 1.5000 Psychological round number 
• RES 3: 1.4948 High Mar 2003  
• RES 2: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
• RES 1: 1.4600/1.4793 Round number resistance / High Feb 3    
• PRICE: 1.4356 @ 08:03 GMT Feb 6  
• SUP 1: 1.4270 Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: 1.4261 Low Jan 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.4178 High Nov 6 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.4120 Low Dec 11

The reversal in USDCAD from Monday’s high extended again Wednesday. For now, the move down appears corrective and the primary uptrend remains intact. Monday’s cycle high, reinforces and strengthens bullish conditions. The break higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.4814 next, the Apr 2003 high. Key support to watch lies at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. A clear breach of this level would alter the picture and signal a reversal.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H5) Bull Phase Remains In Play       

• RES 4: 134.94 High Dec 17            
• RES 3: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
• RES 2: 134.29 High Dec 20
• RES 1: 133.73 50.0% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg                 
• PRICE: 133.44 @ 05:47 GMT Feb 6 
• SUP 1: 132.36 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 16 / 24            
• SUP 3: 131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)     

Bund futures remain in a bull cycle and the contract traded higher yesterday. Price has recently cleared resistance at 132.22, the Jan 22 high, and is through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher confirms a resumption of the corrective bull cycle that started Jan 14. Sights are on 133.73, a Fibonacci retracement point. Firm short-term support has been defined at 131.00, the Jan 16 / 24 low.                        

BOBL TECHS: (H5) Holding On To Its Recent Gains     

• RES 4: 118.310 High Dec 20          
• RES 3: 118.27 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg    
• RES 2: 118.100 High Jan 2   
• RES 1: 117.980 High Jan 3 / 5                              
• PRICE: 117.800 @ 06:02 GMT Feb 6  
• SUP 1: 117.566 50-day EMA                 
• SUP 2: 117.282 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24  
• SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and a key support       

Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle and the contract is holding on to its recent highs. This week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The contract has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of 117.880, 50.0% of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg, would signal scope for an extension towards 118.258, the 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg. Initial support to watch lies at 117.282, the 20-day EMA.           

SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Bullish Conditions Remain Intact               

• RES 4: 107.233 76.4% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
• RES 3: 107.170 High Dec 20    
• RES 2: 107.081 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
• RES 1: 107.045 High Jan 3          
• PRICE: 106.895 @ 06:15 GMT Feb 6   
• SUP 1: 106.805 Low Jan 3               
• SUP 2: 106.743 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 106.515 Low Jan 30 
• SUP 4: 106.435 Low Jan 15 and key support  

A bull cycle that began Jan 15 in Schatz futures remains in play. The contract has traded through a number of important resistance points and the latest impulsive gains highlight a stronger reversal. The focus is on 107.081, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 106.743, the 20-day EMA. First support is 106.805, Monday’s intraday low.                                       

GILT TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Extends            

• RES 4: 95.11 High Dec 12 
• RES 3: 94.75 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 94.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 93.85 High Feb 5                 
• PRICE: 93.73 @ Close Feb 5
• SUP 1: 92.32/91.52 20-day EMA / Low Jan 24                                
• SUP 2: 91.10 Low Jan 20
• SUP 3: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing

A bullish phase in Gilt futures remains in play, signalling scope for a continuation higher near-term. This week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The contract has traded through 93.09, the Dec 20 high, and breached 93.64, the 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg. Sights are on the 94.00 handle next. Initial firm support lies at 92.32, the 20-day EMA.                     

BTP TECHS: (H5) Fresh Short-Term Cycle High                          

• RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11       
• RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12  
• RES 2: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg  
• RES 1: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg    
• PRICE: 120.75 @ Close Feb 5 
• SUP 1: 119.59 20-day EMA          
• SUP 2: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)    

A bullish cycle in BTP futures remains intact. The latest move higher has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50- day EMAs. This signals scope for an extension of the upleg and sights are on 120.98, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would highlight a reversal and the end of the correction.            

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Key Resistance Remains Intact                  

• RES 4: 5381.13 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing 
• RES 3: 5335.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing     
• RES 2: 5327.00 High Jan 31 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 5307.00 Intraday high            
• PRICE: 5300.00 @ 06:25 GMT Feb 6   
• SUP 1: 5112.00 Low Jan 3            
• SUP 2: 5073.75 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4991.00 Low Jan 15  
• SUP 4: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 and a key short-term support  

Eurostoxx 50 futures have recovered from Monday’s low. However, the sharp reversal lower earlier this week does highlight a potential bearish threat that would signal the start of a corrective cycle. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 5180.60. A resumption of the bear leg would pave the way for a move towards the 50-day EMA, at 5073.75. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 5327.00, the Jan 31 high. A break  resumes the primary uptrend.           

E-MINI S&P: (H5) Continues To Trade Below Key Resistance            

• RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 6162.25 High Jan 24 
• RES 2: 6147.75 High Jan 31 
• RES 1: 6103.00 Intraday high                 
• PRICE:6097.75 @ 07:28 GMT Feb 6 
• SUP 1: 6025.21/5935.50 50-day EMA / Low Feb 3           
• SUP 2: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 3: 5842.50 Low Jan 14 
• SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key resistance 

Monday’s initial sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract and breach of support at 5948.00, the Jan 27 low, continues to highlight a possible short-term reversal threat. If correct, it suggests that the latest bounce is a correction. A resumption of weakness would open 5892.37, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, a stronger rally would expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.   

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J5) Monitoring Support Around The 50-Day EMA                      

• RES 4: $85.20 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 9 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing    
• RES 3: $83.97 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 2: $83.28 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $78.80/81.20 - High Jan 23 / 15 and the bull trigger            
• PRICE: $74.85 @ 07:10 GMT Feb 6  
• SUP 1: $75.48/74.15 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 4 
• SUP 2: $71.25 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 3: $70.26 - Low Dec 6
• SUP 4: $69.65 - Low Oct 29 

Brent futures continue to trade closer to their recent lows. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention remains on the 50-day EMA, at $75.48 (pierced). The latest pullback is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. A clear breach of the 50-day average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A reversal higher would instead refocus attention on the bull trigger at $81.20, the Jan 15 high.              

WTI TECHS: (H5) Challenging Support                  

• RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)    
• RES 3: $81.26 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing  
• RES 2: $80.63 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
• RES 1: $75.18/79.48 - High Feb 3 / High Apr 12 ‘24   
• PRICE: $71.37 @ 07:23 GMT Feb 6 
• SUP 1: $72.27/70.67 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 4      
• SUP 2: $68.05 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 3: $66.55 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
• SUP 4: $65.80 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 

Recent weakness in WTI futures marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.27 (pierced). A clear break of the 50-day average would suggest scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a clear reversal higher would refocus attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high and a key resistance.              

GOLD TECHS: Impulsive Bull Wave Remains Intact               

• RES 4: $2917.5 - 1.764 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing    
• RES 3: $2900.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $2889.9 - 1.618 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $2882.4 - High Feb 5     
• PRICE: $2861.1 @ 07:26 GMT Feb 6 
• SUP 1: $2807.3 - Low Feb 4  
• SUP 2: $2758.0 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: $2730.6 - Low Jan 27  
• SUP 4: $2705.1 - 50-day EMA

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. This week’s appreciation confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $2889.9 next, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2705.1, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at $2758.0.                   

SILVER TECHS: Pierces Resistance                        

• RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance   
• RES 1: $32.552 - 61.8% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg                                 
• PRICE: $31.916 @ 08:09 GMT Feb 6   
• SUP 1: $30.716 - 50-day EMA        
• SUP 2: $29.704 - Low Jan 27 
• SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 

Silver has traded higher this week. Key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high, has been pierced. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and cancel a recent bearish theme. This would open $32.552, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would expose the $33.00 handle. Initial firm support lies at $30.716, the 50-day EMA and a pivot level. A clear break of the EMA would reinstate the recent bearish theme.