MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bull Theme in Gilts Affirmed

Price Signal Summary – Bull Theme in Gilts Affirmed 

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the pullback since the Oct 30 high appears corrective. The contract has managed to find support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6716.03 and a key support. A medium-term bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Price has managed to find support below two important price points; the 50-day EMA, at 5580.70, and 5577.00, the base of a bull channel.
• EURUSD is holding on to its recent gains. The latest recovery is - for now - considered corrective and has allowed a recent oversold condition to unwind. Resistance to watch remains the 20-day EMA, at 1.1584. The trend structure in USDJPY remains bullish and today’s marginal fresh cycle high reinforces bullish conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Despite yesterday’s recovery - a correction - a bearish short-term tone in AUDUSD remains intact. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA undermines a bullish theme. This has exposed the next key support at 0.6440, the Oct 14 low.
• The downleg in Gold since Oct 20 appears to have been a correction and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains also suggest the correction is over. Price remains above a key support at the 50-day EMA. Recent weakness in WTI futures appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. This suggests that an upward corrective cycle remains intact for now. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $60.84, signalling scope for a stronger recovery.
• A short-term bear cycle in Bund futures remains intact and Monday’s fresh short-term cycle low reinforces current conditions. The latest move down undermines a recent bull theme and the contract has cleared a number of important support points. The trend theme in Gilt futures remains bullish and a recent weakness appears corrective - for now. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.  

[CROSS ASSET]: Refreshing the MNI Tech Trend Monitor, Adding Gold, Silver, JPY

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for Spot Gold, Silver and USDJPY, while refreshing levels for UK Gilt 10y and 30y yields as well as the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here:  https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/MNITechTrendMonitorOct25.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective       

• RES 4: 1.1728 High Oct 17
• RES 3: 1.1669 High Oct 28 and key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1627 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1584/91 20-day EMA / High Nov 7
• PRICE: 1.1562 @ 06:06 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 1.1469 Low Nov 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.1425 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

EURUSD is holding on to its recent gains. The latest recovery is - for now - considered corrective and has allowed a recent oversold condition to unwind. Resistance to watch remains the 20-day EMA, at 1.1584. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.1624. A reversal would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 1.1469, the Nov 5 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 20-Day EMA         

• RES 4: 1.3471 High Oct 17 and a key short-term resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3334 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 1.3231 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3191 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 1.3169 @ 06:25 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 1.3010 Low Nov 4 and 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2877 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing          

A bear trend in GBPUSD remains intact and recent gains still appear corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Firm short-term resistance to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3231. A break of this hurdle would signal scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.3334. For bears, a resumption of the downtrend would open 1.2971, a Fibonacci projection. The bear trigger is 1.3010, Nov 4 and 5 low.                  

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence

• RES 4: 0.8865 1.764 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing  
• RES 3: 0.8848 1.618 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing  
• RES 2: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
• RES 1: 0.8830 High Nov 5 
• PRICE: 0.8780 @ 06:46 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 0.8763 Low Nov 3   
• SUP 2: 0.8756 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8719 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and recent gains reinforce current conditions. The move higher has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.8835, the May 3 2023 high. Initial support lies at 0.8763, the Nov 3 low and just above the 20-day EMA, at 0.8756. Note that the trend is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective.   

USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 155.89 High Feb 3
• RES 3: 155.53 2.00% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 2: 154.80 High Feb 12
• RES 1: 154.48/49 High Nov 4 and the bull trigger / Intraday high 
• PRICE: 154.24 @ 07:02 GMT Nov 11 
• SUP 1: 152.70 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 151.54 Low Oct 29   
• SUP 3: 150.90 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 149.38 Low Oct 17 

The trend structure in USDJPY remains bullish and today’s marginal fresh cycle high reinforces bullish conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. A clear break of the bull trigger is 154.48, the Nov 4 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 154.80, the Feb 12 high. First important support to watch lies at 152.70, the 20-day EMA.  

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook 

• RES 4: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing  
• RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 178.82 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 178.23 @ 07:56 GMT Nov 11 
• SUP 1: 175.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 174.82 Low Oct 17 
• SUP 3: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• SUP 4: 173.88 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low  

The trend in EURJPY remains bullish and a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains signal scope for 178.94 next, a 1.236 projection of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 175.40. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.6661 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• RES 2: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg  
• RES 1: 0.6537/0.6618 50-day EMA / High Oct 29
• PRICE: 0.6520 @ 08:01 GMT Nov 11 
• SUP 1: 0.6459 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 0.6440 Low Oct 14 and key support 
• SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23   

Despite yesterday’s recovery - a correction - a bearish short-term tone in AUDUSD remains intact. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA undermines a bullish theme. This has exposed the next key support at 0.6440, the Oct 14 low. Key resistance and a short-term bull trigger is at 0.6618, the Oct 29 high. Initial resistance to monitor is at 0.6537, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of the average would strengthen a bullish case.       

USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Reversal Inside A Bull Channel      

• RES 4: 1.4274 High Apr 9  
• RES 3: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.4151 Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low 
• PRICE: 1.4027 @ 08:08 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 1.4001 Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 1.3955 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 1.3874 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low

USDCAD continues to trade below last week’s high. The latest pullback highlights a potential bearish development and a possible reversal. Resistance at the top of a bull channel, currently at 1.4151, remains intact. The bull channel is drawn from the Jul 23 low. The pair has pierced support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.4021. This exposes the 50-day EMA at 1.3955. For bulls, a break of the channel top would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.     

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z5) Bear Leg Intact                 

• RES 4: 130.59 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 130.07 High Oct 24
• RES 2: 129.73 High Oct 28
• RES 1: 129.31 20-day EMA     
• PRICE: 129.02 @ 05:40 GMT Nov 11 
• SUP 1: 128.70 Low Oct 10     
• SUP 2: 128.52 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg
• SUP 3: 128.25 Low Oct 7
• SUP 4: 127.88 Low Sep 25 and key support  

A short-term bear cycle in Bund futures remains intact and Monday’s fresh short-term cycle low reinforces current conditions. The latest move down undermines a recent bull theme and the contract has cleared a number of important support points; the 50-day EMA, at 129.14, and 128.92, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. Sights are on 128.52, the 76.4% retracement. Resistance is at 129.31, the 20-day EMA.              

BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Cycle     

• RES 4: 118.970 High Oct 17 and key resistance       
• RES 3: 118.770 High Oct 22   
• RES 2: 118.360/600 High Oct 28 / 24
• RES 1: 118.201 20-day EMA.   
• PRICE: 118.020 @ 05:37 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 117.900 Low Oct 10  
• SUP 2: 117.824 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 117.710 Low Oct 6   
• SUP 4: 117.630 Low Oct 1 

A short-term bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact for now. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low yesterday, reinforcing a bear theme. Price is through 118.043, 61.8% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull cycle. This signals scope for an extension towards 117.824, the 76.4% Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at 118.201, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would signal a possible reversal.    

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Short-Term Bear Trend Remains Intact       

• RES 4: 107.348 50.0% retracement of Apr 7 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont) 
• RES 3: 107.320 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.235 High Oct 22 
• RES 1: 107.092/175 50-day EMA / High Oct 24   
• PRICE: 107.010 @ 04:53 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 107.005 Intraday low   
• SUP 2: 106.995 Low  Oct 8   
• SUP 3: 106.965 Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and a key support  

A short-term bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact - for now. The downleg that started Oct 17 is considered corrective and has allowed a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Note that 107.014, 76.4% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg and the next important support, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 106.995, the Oct 8 low. Initial resistance is at 107.092, the 50-day EMA.           

GILT TECHS: (Z5) Pullback Appears Corrective             

• RES 4: 94.60 1.764proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing 
• RES 3: 94.24 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing        
• RES 2: 94.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 93.98 High Nov 4 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 93.24 @ Close Nov 10
• SUP 1: 93.01/75 20-day EMA / Low Nov 10      
• SUP 2: 92.38 Low Oct 20
• SUP 3: 92.30 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 91.82 High Sep 11   

The trend theme in Gilt futures remains bullish and a recent weakness appears corrective - for now. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch lies at 93.01, the 20-day EMA. It was pierced yesterday, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper correction, and allow a recent overbought trend condition to continue unwinding. The bull trigger is 93.98, the Nov 4 high.        

BTP TECHS: (Z5) Trend Set-Up Remains Bullish       

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 121.26 @ Close Nov 10
• SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level          
• SUP 2: 120.68 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 120.13 Low Oct 10 
• SUP 4: 119.48 Low Oct 7

The trend set-up in BTP futures is unchanged and remains bullish. Recent  weakness - for now - appears corrective. Note the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 5837.00 Bull channel top drawn from the Aug 1 low
• RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 5777.41 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5742.00 High Oct 29 and the bull trigger       
• PRICE: 5702.00 @ 06:35 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 55780.70 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 5577.00 Bear channel base drawn from the Aug 1 low 
• SUP 3: 5527.70 38.2% retracement of the Aug 1 - Oct 29 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5497.00 Low Oct 14     

A medium-term bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Price has managed to find support below two important price points; the 50-day EMA, at 5580.70, and 5577.00, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. A clear break of both levels would strengthen a bear theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Sights are on the bull trigger at 5742.00, the Oct 29 high.           

E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Bullish Recovery          

• RES 4: 7000.00 Psychological round number 
• RES 3: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 2: 6974.04 3.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 6867.00/6953.75 Intraday high / High Oct 30 and bull trigger  
• PRICE: 6850.50 @ 07:23 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 6655.70 Low Nov 7 and key short-term support 
• SUP 2: 6571.25 Low Oct 17
• SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 6476.62 23.6% retracement of the Apr 7 - Oct 30 bull cycle  

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the pullback since the Oct 30 high appears corrective. The contract has managed to find support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6716.03 and a key support. Friday’s activity also highlights a potential reversal signal - a bullish doji candle. This defines key support at 6655.50, the Oct 7 low. A continuation higher would signal the end of a correction and open 6953.75, Oct 30 high and bull trigger. 

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F6) Bull Flag Formation          

• RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.98 - High Oct 9 
• PRICE: $63.79 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: $62.84/59.97 - Low Nov 6 / 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

Recent activity in Brent futures appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. This suggests that a corrective cycle remains intact for now. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $64.56. Clearance of this hurdle signals scope for a stronger recovery. The next resistance to monitor is $65.98, the Oct 9 high. A clear breach of it would expose a key resistance at $69.29, the Sep 26 high. Key support lies at $59.97, Oct 20 low.       

WTI TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Corrective Cycle       

• RES 4: $71.47 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.68 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $65.77/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $62.59 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $59.81 @ 07:19 GMT Nov 11 
• SUP 1: $58.83/55.96 - Low Nov 6 / Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $54.85 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $54.16 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.23 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

Recent weakness in WTI futures appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. This suggests that an upward corrective cycle remains intact for now. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $60.84, signalling scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, Sep 26 high. The bear trigger is $55.96, the Oct 20 low.    

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Signals The End Of A Corrective Phase         

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4161.4 - High Oct 22                 
• PRICE: $4130.1 @ 07:25 GMT Nov 11 
• SUP 1: $3998.7 - Low Nov 10  
• SUP 2: $3890.0 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3751.3 - 50.0% retracement of the May 15 - Oct 20 bull leg

The downleg in Gold since Oct 20 appears to have been a correction and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains also suggest the correction is over. Price remains above a key support at the 50-day EMA, at $3890.0.0. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on $4381.5, the Oct 20 high and bull trigger.                      

SILVER TECHS: Bull Theme Intact     

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $54.480 - High Oct 17 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: $82.374 - 76.4% retracement of Oct 17 - 28 bear leg    
• PRICE: $50.808 @ 08:11 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: $46.484/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28  
• SUP 2: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 3: $40.000 - Round number support 
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27  

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. The trend has recently been in overbought territory and the retracement has allowed this to unwind. Price remains above support at the 50-day EMA, at $46.484. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance has been defined at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Initial resistance is $52.374, a Fibonacci retracement.