MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish Oil Theme Persists

Price Signal Summary – Bearish Oil Theme Persists

• A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback - for now - is considered corrective. Initial support to watch is 6830.94, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The current bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact. Price is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and has cleared 5742.40, 76.4% of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg.
• A bullish extension last week in GBPUSD confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.3452 next, 61.8% of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg. Despite the latest pullback, the trend condition in USDJPY is bullish. The move down between Nov 20 - Dec 5 appears to have been a correction and the recovery from the Dec 5 low highlights the end of the corrective phase. A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact, reinforced by the recent bearish extension. The move down maintains the current price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and signals scope for a continuation towards 1.3727. 
• A bullish theme in Gold remains intact. The bear phase between Oct 20 - 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and recent weakness reinforces this theme. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.
• Bund futures are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. A bear-mode cycle is intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 127.00 handle. Recent activity in Gilt futures highlights 90.53, the Nov 25 / 26 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high, as two important short-term directional triggers. A breach of 90.53 would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86, the Nov 19 low.  

[CROSS ASSET] MNI Tech Trend Monitor - November Refresh

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for USDMXN, EURHUF, EURGBP, Bitcoin and the USD Index as well as refreshing levels for Spot Gold, Silver, USDJPY, UK Gilt Yields and the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).
• See full document here: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/TechTrendMonitorNov.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Uptrend Intact    

• RES 4: 1.1848 High Sep 18   
• RES 3: 1.1813 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.1779 High Oct 1
• RES 1: 1.1769 High Dec 15
• PRICE: 1.1752 @ 05:55 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 1.1649 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.1591 Low Dec 2 
• SUP 3: 1.1556 Low Nov 26
• SUP 4: 1.1491 Low Nov 21 

EURUSD is trading at its cycle highs. Recent gains reinforce a bull theme highlighting potential for an extension higher. The recent breach of key short-term resistance at 1.1656, the Nov 13 high and a bull trigger, highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 1.1779 next, the October 1 high. Initial support to watch is 1.1649, the 20-day EMA and a pivot level. A clear breach of the EMA would be bearish and highlight a possible reversal.     

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact      

• RES 4: 1.3527 High Oct 1    
• RES 3: 1.3471 High Oct 17  
• RES 2: 1.3452 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3438 High Dec 11
• PRICE: 1.3360 @ 06:06 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 1.3342 Low Dec 12   
• SUP 2: 1.3284 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3180 Low Dec 2 
• SUP 4: 1.3125 Low Nov 26      

A bullish extension last week in GBPUSD confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.3452 next, 61.8% of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull theme and open 1.3527, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support is seen at 1.3286, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a bearish development and signal a possible reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Recovery Extends 

• RES 4: 0.8865 High Nov 14 and a bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8840 High Nov 20
• RES 2: 0.8818 High Nov 26
• RES 1: 0.8802 High Dec 2 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.8796 @ 06:32 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 0.8755/21 50-day EMA / Low Dec 9
• SUP 2: 0.8706 76.4% retracement of the Oct 8 - Nov 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8670 Low Oct 21   
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

The current upleg in EURGBP highlights a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase between Nov 14 - Dec 9. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.8721, the Dec 9 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.8706, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at 0.8802, the Dec 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.         

USDJPY TECHS: Trading Above Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 156.95/157.89 High Dec 9 / High Nov 20 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 154.87 @ 06:50 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 154.68 Low Dec 5
• SUP 2: 154.00 50-day EMA and a key support area  
• SUP 3: 152.82 Low Nov 7 
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 

Despite the latest pullback, the trend condition in USDJPY is bullish. The move down between Nov 20 - Dec 5 appears to have been a correction and the recovery from the Dec 5 low highlights the end of the corrective phase. However, support at 154.00, the 50-day EMA, remains exposed. A clear breach of this average would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open 158.00. 

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure 

• RES 4: 184.63 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 3: 184.34 2.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 2: 183.43 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 183.16 High Dec 12
• PRICE: 182.03 @ 07:01 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 181.20 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 179.09 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 177.15 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 176.50 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low

The trend structure in EURJPY remains bullish and fresh cycle highs last week reinforce current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 182.01, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the trend. Sights are on 184.63, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. First key support is 181.20, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Wave Remains Intact     

• RES 4: 0.6759 High Oct 11 ‘24   
• RES 3: 0.6723 High Oct 21 ‘24 
• RES 2: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6686 High Dec 10
• PRICE: 0.6643 @ 08:02 GMT Dec 16 
• SUP 1: 0.6618/6592 Intraday low / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6560 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.6517 Low Nov 27 
• SUP 4: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21 

A recent strong impulsive rally in AUDUSD strengthens the current bull cycle. Sights are on key resistance at 0.6707, the Sep 17 high and bull trigger. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. A breach of 0.6707 would further strengthen the uptrend. Note that the trend is overbought. A pullback would allow this condition to unwind. First support is at 0.6592, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Signals Point South

• RES 4: 1.4140 High Nov 5 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 1.4051 High Nov 28 
• RES 2: 1.3906 20-day EMA  
• RES 1: 1.3872 High Dec 10  
• PRICE: 1.3768 @ 08:10 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 1.3748 Low Dec 15
• SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Sep17
• SUP 3: 1.3682 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact, reinforced by the recent bearish extension. The move down maintains the current price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and signals scope for a continuation towards 1.3727 next, the Sep 17 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3906, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective and would allow an oversold condition to unwind.    

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H6) Oversold But Remains Bearish                      

• RES 4: 129.55 High Nov 26 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 129.24 High Dec 1    
• RES 2: 128.75 High Dec 3 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 128.08/31 High Dec 8 / 20-day EMA           
• PRICE: 127.60 @ 05:36 GMT Dec 16 
• SUP 1: 127.05 Low Dec 10         
• SUP 2: 127.00 Round number support 
• SUP 3: 126.81 2.764 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.58 3.000 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing

Bund futures are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. A bear-mode cycle is intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 127.00 handle. Key short-term resistance is 128.75, the Dec 3 high. Note that the contract is oversold. A stronger corrective bounce would allow this oversold condition to unwind. The price pattern on Dec 10 is a doji candle - a short-term reversal signal.               

BOBL TECHS: (H6) Trend Needle Points South        

• RES 4: 117.140 High Nov 26 and key resistance       
• RES 3: 117.070 High Nov 27  
• RES 2: 116.960 High Dec 1   
• RES 1: 116.320/770 High Dec 8 / 3   
• PRICE: 116.060 @ 05:36 GMT Dec 16 
• SUP 1: 115.720 Low Dec 10  
• SUP 2: 115.660.4.000 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing  
• SUP 3: 115.600 Round number support
• SUP 4: 115.573 4.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing

The trend set-up in Bobl futures remains bearish following a recent impulsive sell-off. Price has breached support at 116.790, the Nov 14 and 20 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started mid-October. Sights are on 115.660 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the trend is oversold, a stronger recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. First important resistance is at 116.770, the Dec 3 high.     

SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Gains Considered Corrective          

• RES 4: 106.975 High Dec 1 
• RES 3: 106.945 High Dec 3 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 2: 106.885 Low Dec 2   
• RES 1: 106.835 High Dec 8  
• PRICE: 106.735 @ 05:54 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 106.630 Low Dec 10  
• SUP 2: 106.621 2.236 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing
• SUP 3: 106.600 2.382 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing
• SUP 4: 106.583 2.500 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing 

A bear theme in Schatz futures remains intact following the recent impulsive sell-off and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 106.621 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 106.945, the Dec 3 high. A corrective bounce would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind.              

GILT TECHS: (H6) Monitoring The Directional Triggers                    

• RES 4: 92.55 High Nov 11 
• RES 3: 92.31 High Nov 12          
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.64/93 High Dec 11 / High Nov 27      
• PRICE: 91.29 @ Close Dec 15
• SUP 1: 90.62/90.53 Low Dec 8 / Low Nov 25 & 26       
• SUP 2: 90.28 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.86 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger     

Recent activity in Gilt futures highlights 90.53, the Nov 25 / 26 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high, as two important short-term directional triggers. A breach of 90.53 would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86, the Nov 19 low and bear trigger. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains and a breach of 91.93, would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high.               

BTP TECHS: (H6) Corrective Bounce      

• RES 4: 121.33 High Oct 21 and a key resistance area 
• RES 3: 121.37 High Nov 13 
• RES 2: 121.24 High Nov 26 
• RES 1: 120.17/77 Low Nov 20 / High Dec 3   
• PRICE: 119.93 @ Close Dec 15
• SUP 1: 119.12 1.764 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing          
• SUP 2: 118.00 Round number support  
• SUP 3: 118.84 2.000 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 118.56 2.236 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing

BTP futures last week traded through an important support at 120.17, the Nov 20 low. This highlights the fact that a bearish phase remains in play for now, signalling scope for a deeper short-term retracement. The impulsive sell-off opens 119.12 next, a Fibonacci projection. The contract is oversold and the latest corrective recovery is allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is 120.17, the Nov 20 low.                      

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z5) Support Remains Intact     

• RES 4: 5902.82 1.764 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing      
• RES 3: 5858.59 1.618 proj of the Aug 1 - 22 - Sep 2 price swing
• RES 2: 5825.00 High Nov 13 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 5799.00 High Dec 12         
• PRICE: 5723.00 @ 06:23 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 5695.62 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 5645.93 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5518.00 Low Nov 25
• SUP 4: 5475.00 Low Nov 21 and the bear trigger       

The current bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact. Price is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and has cleared 5742.40, 76.4% of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg. The breach of this latter price point paves the way for an extension towards 5825.00, the Nov 13 high and the bull trigger. First key support to watch lies at 5645.93, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would highlight a potential short-term reversal. 

E-MINI S&P: (H6) Corrective Pullback 

• RES 4: 7100.00 Round number support 
• RES 3: 7048.21 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 7014.00 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 6932.25/6988.00 High Dec 15 / 12    
• PRICE: 6844.75 @ 07:26 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 6830.94 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 6785.50 50.0% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 rally 
• SUP 3: 6737.71 61.8% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 rally
• SUP 4: 6684.50 Low Nov 24  

A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback - for now - is considered corrective. Initial support to watch is 6830.94, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that the key support and reversal trigger lies at 6583.00, the Nov 21 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the key resistance and bull trigger at 7014.00, the Oct 30 high.       

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G6) Approaching Key Support            

• RES 4: $70.86 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 17 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.33 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $68.86 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $63.15/65.25 - 50-day EMA / High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $60.23 @ 07:06 GMT Dec 16 
• SUP 1: $59.93 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.92 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $58.11 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.22 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains present and this week’s bearish start to the week reinforces current conditions. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode condition. Sights are on key support and the bear trigger at $59.93, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle and open $58.92, the May 5 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is $65.25, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is $63.15, the 50-day EMA.        

WTI TECHS: (F6) Bear Threat Remains Present          

• RES 4: $71.38 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $67.16 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $59.43/65.33 - 50-day EMA / High Sep 26 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $61.84 - High Oct 24    
• PRICE: $56.48 @ 07:16 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: $55.99 - Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $55.33 - Low May 1
• SUP 3: $54.72 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $53.53 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and recent weakness reinforces this theme. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open $54.72, the Apr 9 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is $61.84, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is at $59.43, the 50- day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Theme          

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4353.5 - High Dec 12                    
• PRICE: $4285.7 @ 07:21 GMT Dec 16 
• SUP 1: $4196.8/4078.9 - 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: $3998.1 - Low Nov 18 
• SUP 3: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger 
• SUP 4: $3800.00 Round number support

A bullish theme in Gold remains intact. The bear phase between Oct 20 - 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Key support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $4078.9. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.                       

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence    

• RES 4: $68.397 - 2.236 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: $66.312 - 2.000 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 2: $65.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $64.657 - High Dec 12   
• PRICE: $63.105 @ 08:13 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: $57.610 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $52.943/48.644 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21 
• SUP 3: $45.557 - Low Oct 28
• SUP 4: $41.135 - Low Sep 17 

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and last week’s push to fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. The metal has traded through the psychological $60.00 handle and this paves the way for an extension towards the $66.312 handle next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position reinforcing current bullish conditions. Initial key support lies at $57.610, the 20-day EMA.