MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Weakness Appears Corrective

Price Signal Summary – AUD Weakness Appears Corrective

• The trend structure in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and price continues to trade above key near-term support at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact. Gains last week confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
• The trend theme in GBPUSD remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3380. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Friday’s climb in USDJPY reinforces the current bullish theme. The pair traded to a fresh trend high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Recent weakness in AUDUSD appears corrective and this has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Initial firm support lies at 0.6678, the 20- day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose support at the 50-day EMA.
• The trend structure in Gold remains bullish and today’s strong start to this week’s session reinforces current conditions. Gold has cleared resistance at $4549.9, the Dec 26 high, to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. The trend structure in WTI futures remains bearish and recent gains still appear corrective - for now. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.                            
• Bund futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The latest rally does undermine the bear theme and attention is on resistance around the  50-day EMA, at 128.29. Gilt futures traded sharply higher last week. The contract is through resistance at 91.93, the Nov 27 high. This strengthens a short-term bullish condition and paves the way for a climb towards 92.57 next, a Fibonacci projection.  

[CROSS ASSET] MNI Tech Trend Monitor

• We refresh our Global Tech Trend Monitor, adding longer-term techs for USDMXN, EURHUF, EURGBP, Bitcoin and the USD Index as well as refreshing levels for Spot Gold, Silver, USDJPY, UK Gilt Yields and the Europe Banking Stock Index (SX7E).

See full document here: https://emedia.marketnews.com/marketnewsintl/TechTrendMonitorNov.pdf

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance At The 20-Day EMA    

• RES 4: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a key M/T resistance  
• RES 3: 1.1848 High Sep 18
• RES 2: 1.1808 High Dec 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 1.1706/65 20-day EMA / High Jan 2 
• PRICE: 1.1670@ 05:58 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 1.1618 Low Jan 9 
• SUP 2: 1.1598 61.8% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 12 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.1549 76.4% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 12 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.1512 Low Nov 25 

Despite today’s early gains, EURUSD maintains a softer tone. Last week’s bearish extension resulted in a breach of support at 1.1659, the Jan 5 low. The move down cancels a recent reversal signal and suggests a bearish theme appears likely to dominate near-term. Sights are on 1.1598, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 1.1706, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would highlight a second possible reversal signal.          

GBPUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 1.3726 High Sep 17 and a key resistance     
• RES 3: 1.3661 High Sep 18
• RES 2: 1.3607 2.764 proj of the Nov 4 - 13 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3568 High Jan 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3433 @ 06:36 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 1.3380 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3312 Low Dec 17
• SUP 3: 1.3288 Low Dec 9 
• SUP 4: 1.3180 Low Dec 2     

The trend theme in GBPUSD remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3380. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 1.3312, the Dec 17 low. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.3568, the Jan 6 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend that started on Nov 4.    

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17   
• RES 3: 0.8774 High Dec 19 
• RES 2: 0.8732 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8703 Low Dec 30 
• PRICE: 0.8684 @ 06:47 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 0.8644 Low Jan 6
• SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15
• SUP 3: 0.8620 38.2% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 0.8597 Low Aug 14

A sharp sell-off in EURGBP early last week confirms a resumption of the current bear cycle. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.8620, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, resistance to watch is 0.8732 the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a possible reversal.  

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence 

• RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12 ‘24 
• RES 3: 158.87 High Jan 10 ‘25 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 1: 158.20 Intraday high
• PRICE: 157.95 @ 07:10 GMT Jan 12 
• SUP 1: 156.50/155.35 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 154.35 Low Dec 5 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 3: 153.62 Low Nov 14 
• SUP 4: 152.82 Low Nov 7

Friday’s climb in USDJPY reinforces the current bullish theme. The pair traded to a fresh trend high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. This  maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 158.29, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Support to watch lies at 155.35, the 50-day EMA.  

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 186.62 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low 
• RES 3: 185.77 2.5000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 2: 184.92 High Dec 22
• RES 1: 184.49 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 184.43 @ 07:23 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 182.64 Low Jan 8
• SUP 2: 182.25 Low Dec 19 
• SUP 3: 181.47 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 180.50 Low Dec 8 

The trend needle in EURJPY continues to point north. The flat correction since Dec 22 still appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. A resumption of the trend would open 186.62, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. This level also represents a key medium-term resistance point. Key support to watch lies at 181.47, the 50-day EMA.    

AUDUSD TECHS: Recent Pullback Considered Corrective      

• RES 4: 0.6872 38.2% retracement of the 2021 - 2025 L/T downtrend  
• RES 3: 0.6858 1.000 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6795 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing
• RES 1: 0.6767 High Jan 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6710 @ 08:05 GMT Jan 12 
• SUP 1: 0.6664 Low Jan 9
• SUP 2: 0.6627 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.6593 Low Dec 18 
• SUP 4: 0.6553 Low Dec 3  

Recent weakness in AUDUSD appears corrective and this has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Initial firm support lies at 0.6678, the 20- day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6627. The area between the two EMAs represents a key support zone. For bulls, a resumption of the uptrend would open 0.6795 next, a Fibonacci projection.   

USDCAD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.4023 76.4% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 26 bear leg     
• RES 3: 1.3977 High Dec 4
• RES 2: 1.3950 61.8% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 26 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.3920 High Jan 9
• PRICE: 1.3875 @ 08:13 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 1.3848/3798 50- and 20-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: 1.3701 Low Jan 2 
• SUP 3: 1.3643 Low Dec 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3576 Low Jul 23 

Last week's extension higher in USDCAD undermines a recent bearish theme, signalling scope for a stronger short-term bull phase. The pair is through the 50-day EMA, at 1.3848. A clear break of this average highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 1.3950 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support to watch is 1.3798, the 20-day EMA. A breach of it would instead highlight a possible reversal.      

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H6) Resistance To Watch is At The 50-Day EMA                      

• RES 4: 129.66 High Nov 12   
• RES 3: 128.75 High Dec 3 and a key resistance   
• RES 2: 128.52 High Dec 5  
• RES 1: 128.29 50-day EMA           
• PRICE: 127.93 @ 05:31 GMT Jan 12 
• SUP 1: 127.13/126.75 Low Jan 6 / Low Dec 22 and the bear trigger          
• SUP 2: 126.53 Low Mar 11 (cont.) and a key support  
• SUP 3: 126.35 3.236 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.20 3.382 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing

Bund futures are trading closer to their recent highs. The latest rally does undermine the bear theme and attention is on resistance around the  50-day EMA, at 128.29. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a continuation higher, towards 128.75, the Dec 3 high. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 126.75, the Dec 22 low.                   

BOBL TECHS: (H6) Corrective Cycle In Play         

• RES 4: 116.805 76.4% retracement of the Nov 26 - Dec 10 bear leg      
• RES 3: 116.720 High Dec 4  
• RES 2: 116.598 61.8% retracement of the Nov 26 - Dec 10 bear leg     
• RES 1: 116.500 High Jan 7     
• PRICE: 116.300 @ 05:53 GMT Jan 12 
• SUP 1: 16.255 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 115.920/720 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 3: 115.660.4.000 proj of the Nov 6 - 14 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.600 Round number support

The trend set-up in Bobl futures is unchanged, the condition remains bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective - for now. However, last week’s gains do undermine the bearish theme and highlights a potentially stronger short-term bull cycle. A continuation higher would open 116.598, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 115.720, the Dec 10 low and bear trigger.         

SCHATZ TECHS: (H6) Corrective Phase            

• RES 4: 107.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 106.945 High Dec 3 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 106.896 61.8% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 bear leg    
• RES 1: 106.880 High Jan 7
• PRICE: 106.810 @ 06:09 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 106.725 Low Jan 5  
• SUP 2: 106.690 Low Dec 18 & 22
• SUP 3: 106.630 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 106.621 2.236 proj of the Nov 26 - Dec 2 - 3 minor price swing

A bear theme in Schatz futures remains intact and the bull cycle since Dec 10 is considered corrective. However, recent gains highlight a stronger short-term bull theme and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. A continuation higher would open 106.896 next, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on key support and bear trigger at 106.630, the Dec 10 low.               

GILT TECHS: (H6) Bull Cycle Intact                     

• RES 4: 93.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 92.91 1.764 proj of the Dec 16 - 17 - 22 price swing      
• RES 2: 92.72 1.618 proj of the Dec 16 - 17 - 22 price swing
• RES 1: 92.57 1.500 proj of the Dec 16 - 17 - 22 price swing      
• PRICE: 92.48 @ Close Jan 9
• SUP 1: 91.84 Low Jan 8       
• SUP 2: 91.40 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 90.70 Low Jan 2      
• SUP 4: 90.50 Low Dec 16 and a key support      

Gilt futures traded sharply higher last week. The contract is through resistance at 91.93, the Nov 27 high. This strengthens a short-term bullish condition and paves the way for a climb towards 92.57 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support is seen at 91.84, the Jan 8 low. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at 91.40. A break of the average would signal a possible reversal.               

BTP TECHS: (H6) Bull Cycle Remains In Play      

• RES 4: 121.37 High Nov 13
• RES 3: 121.24 High Nov 26 
• RES 2: 121.06 High Dec 1 
• RES 1: 120.83 High Jan 7  
• PRICE: 120.71 @ Close Jan 9
• SUP 1: 120.23/119.45 20-day EMA / Low Dec 22           
• SUP 2: 119.13 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 118.84 2.000 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing 

A strong rally last week in BTP futures has cancelled a recent bearish threat, for now. The break of resistance at 120.59, the Dec 29 high and key short-term resistance, signals scope for a continuation of the bull leg and opens 121.06 next, the Dec 1 high. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 120.23, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a possible bearish development.                         

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H6) Overbought But Remains Bullish      

• RES 4: 6134.00 1.382 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 12 - 18 price swing     
• RES 3: 6100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 6086.99 1.236 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 12 - 18 price swing
• RES 1: 6022.00 High Jan 9         
• PRICE: 6012.00 @ 06:46 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 5912.00/5838.26 Low Jan 8 / 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 5749.56 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5689.00 Low Dec 18 
• SUP 4: 5655.00 Low Dec 1     

A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact . Gains last week confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The 6000.00 handle has been breached, signalling scope for 6086.99 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is 5819.97, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective and allow an overbought condition to unwind.      

E-MINI S&P: (H6) Trend Theme Remains Bullish  

• RES 4: 7080.92 0.764 proj Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing  
• RES 3: 7036.74 0.764 proj of the Dec 18 - 26 - Jan 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 7021.79 0.618 proj Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing
• RES 1: 7017.50 High Jan 9   
• PRICE: 6967.00 @ 07:22 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 6933.61/6882.33 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 6771.50 Low Dec 18 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 6684.50 Low Nov 24  
• SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 21 and a reversal trigger  

The trend structure in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and price continues to trade above key near-term support at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement and would also highlight a possible short-term reversal. For bulls, a fresh cycle high on Friday reinforces a bull theme. A resumption of the trend would open 7021.79, a Fibonacci projection.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H6) Is Through The 50-Day EMA            

• RES 4: $70.06 - High Jul 30 
• RES 3: $68.58 - High Sep 26 
• RES 2: $64.81 - High Oct 24 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $64.00 - Intraday high 
• PRICE: $63.46 @ 05:36 GMT Jan 12 
• SUP 1: $58.53 - Low Dec 16   
• SUP 2: $58.27 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $57.87 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
• SUP 4: $56.44 - 2.000 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A recovery in Brent futures last week resulted in a break of resistance around the 50-day EMA, at $61.97. The break highlights a short-term improvement in the current bull theme and signals scope for an extension of the corrective cycle. The trend condition remains bearish and a reversal lower would $58.27, the Apr 9 low. Key resistance to watch is $64.81, the Oct 24 high. A breach of this hurdle would highlight a stronger reversal.        

WTI TECHS: (G6) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play         

• RES 4: $70.16 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $64.97 - High Sep 26
• RES 2: $61.25 - High Oct 24 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $59.77 - High Jan 9    
• PRICE: $59.24 @ 05:56 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: $54.89 - Low Dec 16
• SUP 2: $54.71 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $53.77 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
• SUP 4: $52.27 - 2.000 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

The trend structure in WTI futures remains bearish and recent gains still appear corrective - for now. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Note that resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $58.32, has been breached. This signals scope for a stronger corrective phase. Key resistance is at $61.25, the Oct 24 high. A resumption of the downtrend would open $53.77, a Fibonacci projection.     

GOLD TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend         

• RES 4: $4799.9 - 2.236 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - Nov 18 swing 
• RES 3: $4715.3 - 2.000 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - Nov 18 swing
• RES 2: $4630.7 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - Nov 18 swing
• RES 1: $4600.0 - Round number resistance                    
• PRICE: $4574.3 @ 05:30 GMT Jan 12 
• SUP 1: $4385.9 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $4345.3 - Low May 1 
• SUP 3: $4246.0 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: $4204.4 - Low Dec 11

The trend structure in Gold remains bullish and today’s strong start to this week’s session reinforces current conditions. Gold has cleared resistance at $4549.9, the Dec 26 high, to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Sights are on the $4600.0 handle, where a break would open $4630.7, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at $4385.9, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal the start of a corrective phase.                          

SILVER TECHS: Fresh Cycle High    

• RES 4: $88.397 - 4.500 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: $87.355 - 4.382 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 2: $86.065 - 4.236 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: $84.609 - Intraday high  
• PRICE: $84.223 @ 08:21 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: $72.087 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $63.626 - 50-day EMA   
• SUP 3: $60.815 - Low Dec 12
• SUP 4: $57.606 - Low Dec 9

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. Today’s positive start to the week and a fresh cycle high, reinforce current conditions. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on $86.065, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is $72.087, the 20-day EMA.