MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Firms Despite RBA Cuts

Price Signal Summary – AUD Firms Despite RBA Cuts

• With the recovery in the E-mini S&P based well off the early August low, prices have hit new highs Wednesday, marking a formal resumption of the underlying uptrend. Projection levels kick in at 6477.31 ahead of round number resistance into 6500.00. The bounce off post-NFP lows in global equity indices persists, with the Eurostoxx 50 future recovering back above the 50-day EMA into the Thursday close.
• GBPUSD traded higher again Tuesday, further building on the gains posted after the break of the 50-day EMA on the August BoE rate decision. This firms the speed of the recovery off the 1.3142 pullback low and signals a greater probability of a bullish reversal. USDJPY consolidated for much of last week, holding the bulk of the NFP losses. Price has bounced, but recoveries are shallow at this stage. This has allowed a previously overbought condition to unwind, and keeps the downside argument in focus. AUDUSD rallied well off the week’s lowest levels last week on broad USD weakness - erasing any signs of a bearish breakout on the show through the 20- and 50-day EMAs.
• Gold prices are off the weekly low, however bounces appear shallow at these levels, keeping price within the mid-point of the recent range. The phase of weakness into the end of July supported the view that short-term pullbacks are corrective - for now - and the bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. WTI futures traded poorly Friday, cracking the 50-day EMA and piercing the bear trigger. Markets have built on this S/T momentum lower, with support under pressure into 62.77.
• Bunds slipped again into the Tuesday close, extending the spell of weakness after the break back below the 130.00 handle. The bear trigger and notable support of 128.84 is yet to be tested. Having traded higher mid-last week, Gilt futures are fading alongside global bonds. Having pulled back to 91.51, markets have reversed any bullish reversal signal stemming from the August 1st daily candle. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE    

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Daily Candle

• RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
• RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.1699 High Aug 7
• PRICE: 1.1692 @ 07:59 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 1.1401 Low Jul 30 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1373 Low Jun 10
• SUP 3: 1.1313 Low May 30
• SUP 4: 1.1184 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jul 1 bull cycle  

EUR/USD edged higher Tuesday and is firm again to start the Wednesday session. Prices are extending gains on the clearance of the post-NFP high - keeping the recovery off the late July pullback low intact. This works against the bearish backdrop that had dominated the pullback from 1.1829. The break of firm resistance into 20-day EMA, now at 1.1624, is signaling greater odds of a further reversal higher. Major support below rests at 1.1373 next, the Jun 10 low. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Still Clear of 50-day EMA on Hawkish BoE

• RES 4: 1.3681 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 1.3620 High Jul 10 
• RES 2: 1.3589 High Jul 24 
• RES 1: 1.3524 High Aug 12
• PRICE: 1.3520 @ 08:01 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
• SUP 2: 1.3041 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 1.3000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle   

Prices traded higher again Tuesday, further building on the gains posted after the break of the 50-day EMA on the August BoE rate decision. This firms the speed of the recovery off the 1.3142 pullback low and signals a greater probability of a bullish reversal. For now, S/T momentum is still pointed higher, with the Jul 24 high of 1.3589 the next notable upside level. While the bounce off the pullback low persists, the more medium-term trend remains bearish - but the risk of a return to recent lows has fallen.

EURGBP TECHS: Support Tested

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8735/8769 High Aug 3 / High Jul 27 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8650 @ 18:03 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 0.8614 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.8611 Low Jul 31 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27

EUR/GBP corrected lower on the BoE rate decision, which sent prices through the weekly low. This weakness has persisted, with a pullback low yesterday testing the first support into the 50-day EMA of 0.8614. A clear break here would strengthen the bearish threat. More broadly, the trend set-up is bullish. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear uptrend. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 27 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Shallow Bounce

• RES 4: 152.31 High Feb 19 
• RES 3: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg 
• RES 2: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 1: 150.92 High Aug 1 
• PRICE: 147.74 @ 08:05 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 146.79 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 146.62 Low Aug 5
• SUP 3: 146.40 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 145.86 Low Jul 24  

USDJPY consolidated for much of last week, holding the bulk of the NFP losses. Price has bounced, but recoveries are shallow at this stage. This has allowed a previously overbought condition to unwind, and keeps the downside argument in focus. Prices are trading either side of the 147.61 20-day EMA, and the inability to build a base here will be a concern. A clear break of this support zone would undermine the recent bull theme. A break of last week’s 150.92 high would resume the uptrend.     

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 172.81 @ 08:09 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 169.83 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

A bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and for now the recent move down is considered corrective. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 169.83. A clear break of the EMA is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. A break of the Jul 28 high of 173.97, would resume the bull cycle.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Edging Higher Despite RBA Cuts 

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing  
• RES 1: 0.6549/6625 High Aug 13 / 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6548 @ 08:10 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 0.6419 Low Aug 1
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD rallied well off the week’s lowest levels last week on broad USD weakness - erasing any signs of a bearish breakout on the show through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. While support at 0.6455 the Jul 17 low, has been cleared, the recovery in prices keeps key resistance in focus at 0.6625 the Jul 24 high. It also represents the bull trigger. Any return lower would signal a bearish threat into 0.6373, the Jun 23 low. 

USDCAD TECHS: Shallow Bounce Off Lows

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10  
• RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
• RES 1: 1.3879 High Aug 1
• PRICE: 1.3759 @ 08:13 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

USDCAD remains subdued, despite the shallow bounce Friday feeding through to further gains on Monday. The reversal off highs on Tuesday affirms this theme. The pair remains notably lower on the week on the back of last Friday’s USD weakness. Initial firm support has been breached at the 1.3737 20-day EMA, a break below which would resume the correction off the early August high at 1.3879. On the recent run higher, price traded through the 50-day EMA at 1.3746, which aided the rally. This week’s price action, however, has cancelled that bullish threat and returned focus lower. The 100-dma becomes a key pivot point at 1.3814 last. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U5) Slips Into Close, Exposing Support

• RES 4: 131.33 High Jun 20
• RES 3: 130.85 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - Jul 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 130.76 High Jul 22
• RES 1: 130.60 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 129.24 @ 07:08 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 128.84 Low Jul 25 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)  

Bunds slipped again into the Tuesday close, extending the spell of weakness after the break back below the 130.00 handle. The bear trigger and notable support of 128.84 is yet to be tested, but further impulsive selling will see the level under pressure. Strength above the 50-day EMA of 130.05 failed to stick, which cancels any bullish theme that followed the formation of a bullish engulfing candle on Jul 28. 129.57 marks intraday resistance.

BOBL TECHS: (U5) Fading Mid-Month

• RES 4: 118.390 High Jun 13    
• RES 3: 118.030 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.710 High Aug 5
• RES 1: 117.455 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.150 @ 07:12 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 116.970 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 116.840 Low Mar 18 (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)

Following the early August rally, prices have faded mid-month, with prices well toward the bottom-end of the recent range. Despite piercing first resistance early last week at the 50-day EMA, prices remain capped to keep focus on the bear trigger of 116.970 - the July 25 and range low. Having failed to establish a base on the hammer formation and engulfing signal in late July, the S/T trend looks weak. Clearance of 116.970 opens levels on the continuation chart at 116.80-84.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Testing Support

• RES 4: 107.430 High Jun 13  
• RES 3: 107.360 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 107.207 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.132 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 107.030 @ 07:16 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 106.990 Low Aug 12
• SUP 2: 107.993 1.500 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

The sell-off in Schatz futures resulted in the bear trigger being pierced Tuesday: the 107.010 support gave way, signalling potential for further near-term losses. The move lower marks new contract lows, exposing projection levels layered between 106.928-107.993, which should act as a modest zone of support ahead of the March levels on the continuation contract. The 20-day EMA remains the upside level of interest, having defined the early August downtred, today at 107.132.

GILT TECHS: (U5) Bearish Daily Close

• RES 4: 93.21 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 93.13 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg     
• RES 2: 93.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 92.84 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 91.71 @ Close Aug 12
• SUP 1: 91.51 Low Aug 12
• SUP 2: 91.44/08 Low Aug 1 / Jul 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg  
• SUP 4: 90.59 Low May 29       

Having traded higher mid-last week, Gilt futures are fading alongside global bonds. Having pulled back to 91.51, markets have reversed any bullish reversal signal stemming from the August 1st daily candle, exposing key support and the bear trigger at 91.08, the Jul 18 low. With S/T momentum pointed lower, markets need to build a base at 92.17 to establish any recovery. 

BTP TECHS: (U5) Resistance Remains Exposed     

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 121.70 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 120.74 @ 07:25 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and remains bullish, in contrast with broader EGB and Treasury markets. While closed lower Tuesday, the underlying uptrend remains intact, while price holds between the 20- and 50-day EMAs. 120.89 and 121.20 hold as the intraday targets. A continuation higher would open 121.73, the Jul 13 high and bull trigger. Key short-term support has been defined at 119.59, the Jul 25 low.                     

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U5) Recovery Firming

• RES 4: 5575.00 High Mar 3 and a major resistance (cont) 
• RES 3: 5526.00 High Mar 19 / 20 (cont)
• RES 2: 5486.00/88.00 High May 20 and a bull trigger / High Jul 10
• RES 1: 5449.00 High Jul 28   
• PRICE: 5370.00 @ 07:34 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 5204.88 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 5166.00 Low Aug 1
• SUP 3: 5138.00 High Apr 30 
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

The bounce off post-NFP lows in global equity indices persists, with the Eurostoxx 50 future recovering back above the 50-day EMA into the Thursday close. Markets look to build a base above this level, through which additional strength refocuses attention on 5486.00, the May 20 high. To the downside, recent impulsive weakness did result in a temporary breach of the bear trigger - this makes the April 30 hi/lo range at 5078-5138 the area of downside interest. 

E-MINI S&P: (U5) Plumbing New Highs

• RES 4: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 3: 6500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 6477.31 1.618 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 6474.75 High Aug 31 and the bull trigger      
• PRICE: 6466.75 @ 07:30 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: 6253.04 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• SUP 2: 6239.50 Low Aug 1
• SUP 3: 6240.28 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 6213.75 50% retracement of Jun - Aug Upleg

With the recovery based well off the early August low, prices have hit new highs Wednesday, marking a formal resumption of the underlying uptrend. Projection levels kick in at 6477.31 ahead of round number resistance into 6500.00. Through recent phases of weakness, the 50-day EMA at 6240.28, has held as support - and will be important on any subsequent declines. Clearance of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. 

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V5) Fresh Lows

• RES 4: $83.02 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.89/77.73 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-30 downleg / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $66.12 @ 07:50 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: $65.53/65.06 - Low Aug 8 / Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Weakness across Brent futures persists, with fresh pullback lows printed Friday. This extends the spell of weakness posted off the break of $71.40, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 50 downleg. A further reversal would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at $65.06, the Jun 30 low. A break of this level would resume the recent bearish theme. The next resistance to watch remains $72.89, the 61.8% retracement point. 

WTI TECHS: (U5) Weak After Break of Bear Trigger

• RES 4: $81.12 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $77.75 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $70.96/75.98 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-24 downleg / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $62.97 @ 07:46 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: $62.77 - Low Aug 11
• SUP 2: $58.17 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.66 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.01 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures traded poorly Friday, cracking the 50-day EMA and piercing the bear trigger. Markets have built on this S/T momentum lower, with support under pressure into 62.77. A clear break here exposes $58.17, the May 30 low. Gains early last week marked an extension of a corrective cycle - which may now have concluded to result in cleaner positioning. $69.41 marks the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg - an important level on any recovery from here.

GOLD TECHS: Shallow Bounce

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3409.2/3439.0 - High Aug 8 / 23             
• PRICE: $3355.6 @ 07:51 BST Aug 13 
• SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30 
• SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

Prices are off the weekly low, however bounces appear shallow at these levels, keeping price within the mid-point of the recent range. The phase of weakness into the end of July supported the view that short-term pullbacks are corrective - for now - and the bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3333.9, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high.            

SILVER TECHS: Recovers Off Support

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $38.376 @ 07:54 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
• SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg  
• SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish despite the unconstructive price action into the end of July. The pullback off the late July highs is considered corrective - particularly as prices have recovered off support at the 50-day EMA, now at $36.895. It has been pierced, but a clear break of it is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.