MNI Colombia CB Review - Oct 2025: Extended Hold Seen

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Executive Summary

• The Colombian central bank left its overnight lending rate unchanged at 9.25% for a fourth consecutive meeting in October, in line with expectations. Once again, the decision was split 4-1-2, with one member voting for a 25bp cut and two members voting for a 50bp reduction, the same as at the previous meeting in September.
• The decision reflected concerns about rising inflation expectations and the risks to inflation, which is only seen returning to target in H1 2027.
• Analysts now expect the Board to remain on hold until well into next year, with the easing cycle potentially not resuming until the second half of the year.