MNI BRIEF: Japan Q2 GDP To Rise 0.1% Q/Q; Annualised 0.2%

Japan’s economy is expected to have expanded in the April-June quarter, marking the first rise in two quarters, supported by solid private consumption and a positive contribution from net exports, though capital investment likely slowed, according to private economists.

Preliminary Q2 GDP is forecast to rise 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, or an annualised 0.2%, improving from 0.0% q/q (annualised -0.2%) in the first quarter of 2025.

Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of GDP, is expected to have increased by 0.1% q/q, the same pace as in Q1.

Net exports of goods and services are projected to have contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP, after subtracting 0.8 pp in the previous quarter.

Capital investment is forecast to have risen 0.5% q/q in Q2, slowing from a 1.1% gain in Q1. Public investment is expected to have increased 0.2% q/q, following a 0.6% decline in the previous quarter.

Looking ahead, economists expect economic momentum to weaken in Q3, as tariffs and elevated food prices weigh on consumer spending. However, they do not anticipate a serious downturn, noting that a trade agreement between Japan and the U.S. has helped ease some uncertainty.

The Cabinet Office will release the preliminary April-June GDP data at 0850 JST on Friday, Aug 15 (2350 GMT on Thursday, Aug 14).