MNI BoE Preview - May 2025: Could “Gradual” Be Dropped?

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• Going into this week’s meeting an outcome other than a 25bp cut would be surprising but there will be a number of things to watch: any changes to the guidance and the inflation / growth forecast changes, the vote split and the introduction of new scenarios.
• For the guidance we expect "restrictive" and "careful" to remain but we question whether "gradual" will be removed and talk through the rationale for this potential change.
• On the vote split, consensus expects 8-1 but neither Dhingra nor Mann dissenting for a 50bp cut would be a huge surprise. Taylor or Ramsden are plausible possible dissenters that would be more noteworthy - and any other member voting for a 50bp cut or for Bank Rate on hold would be a huge surprise.
• We look at the potential for different CPI and GDP forecasts.
• Overall we think that a dovish pivot from the MPC is possible, but that the market is already partially pricing this.
• We also round up over 20 sellside views ahead of the meeting.