BOE: MNI BOE Preview: February 2026

Gilt Opening Calls, 90.70/90.72.

• RES 4: 92.31 High Nov 12
• RES 3: 92.00 Round number resistance         
• RES 2: 91.93 High Nov 27
• RES 1: 91.47 High Dec 31      
• PRICE: 90.78 @ Close Jan 2
• SUP 1: 90.50 Low Dec 16       
• SUP 2: 90.28 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.86 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger     

Recent price action in Gilt futures highlights 90.50, the Dec 16 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high, as two important short-term directional triggers. A clear breach of support at 90.50 would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86, the Nov 19 low and a bear trigger. On the upside, a resumption of gains and a breach of 91.93, would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high.

GBP STIRs are little changed to start the week.

• BoE-dated OIS fully discounts the next 25bp rate cut come the end of the June MPC, with just under 40bp of cumulative easing priced for ’26.
• Terminal rate pricing steady in the 3.30-3.35% area.
• SONIA futures effectively unchanged across the strip.
• SFIZ6 6.5 off Dec highs.
• The early recovery from Friday/Monday, lows in wider core global FI markets has stalled, with geopolitical matters front and centre to start the week.
• Crude prices are slightly softer amid significant uncertainty re: Venezuela’s oil production capability after the U.S. captured the country’s President over the weekend (pre-existing expectations for a large ’26 global crude production surplus and potential upside risks to Venezuelan production in the wake of the weekend events are noted).
• Elsewhere, PM Starmer has suggested that the UK should move towards closer alignment with EU markets "if it's in our national interest". Starmer once again played down suggestions that his position as leader of the Labour Party was under threat.
• Money supply and bank lending data is due from the UK today, ahead of the final services PMI reading tomorrow.