MNI BI Preview-Nov 2025: BI Could Hold To Wait & See

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Bank Indonesia (BI) announces its rates decision on Wednesday 19 November and could hold or ease as it has reasons for both. Bloomberg consensus is expecting it to be on hold with only 5/30 forecasting 25bp of easing but recently BI has gone against majority expectations.
• If BI holds in November, it is likely to reiterate that it is “monitoring the transmission effectiveness of accommodative monetary policy” and that it would like to see lower lending rates and an improvement in lending growth to support economic activity (it is forecasting 2026 loan growth of 8-12%). 
• USDIDR has trended higher over November and BI has intervened to stall the move. However, at around 16762, it is up a percent since the 22 October decision. 
• It could still cut in December, if the rupiah has stabilised and the Fed eases too.