MNI BCB Review: Nov 25: Dec Cut Unlikely Given Hawkish Tone

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Executive Summary

• The Copom decided unanimously to keep the Selic rate unchanged at 15.00% for a third consecutive meeting, in line with expectations.
• The statement was very similar to before, although the committee now sees keeping the Selic rate at current levels for “a very prolonged period” as being sufficient to ensure the convergence of inflation to target.
• Despite this moderate dovish tilt, some analysts have notably adjusted their rate cut bets for December, with the easing cycle now widely expected to begin in the first quarter of next year.