COLOMBIA: MNI BanRep Preview - June 2023
- For those who missed the central bank preview published last night -- All 24 surveyed analysts expect BanRep to keep the overnight lending rate unchanged at 13.25%, confirming the end of the tightening cycle.
- Furthermore, the continued outperformance of the Colombian peso is likely to bolster an already improving inflation outlook, which in turn should make BanRep more comfortable keeping policy steady at this juncture and heightens the probability of a unanimous decision.
- The focus going forward now turns to when the central bank may envisage commencing rate cuts, a topic that has garnered increased attention following the latest comments from the newly-appointed finance minister.
- The full MNI preview with analyst views is here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/54393/MNI%20Colombia%20Central%20Bank%20Preview%20-%20June%202023.pdf
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EURGBP TECHS: Fresh YTD Lows
- RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3
- RES 3: 0.8814 High May 4
- RES 2: 0.8752 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8712 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8644 @ 16:04 BST May 30
- SUP 1: 0.8628 Low May 30
- SUP 2: 0.8593 Low Dec 15 2022
- SUP 3: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022
- SUP 4: 0.8547 Low Dec 1 2022 and key support
The EURGBP short-term trend needle continues to point south and the cross has resumed its downtrend Tuesday, clearing recent lows and confirming a breach of 0.8661, the May 11 low. The cross is also trading at YTD lows. This maintains the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs and it is worth noting that 50- and 200-dmas are on the cusp of death cross - a bearish technical signal. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8712 the 20-day EMA.
US: Rep McHenry: No Doubt Debt Ceiling Bill Will Pass The House
Republican Rep Patrick McHenry (R-NC), one of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's (R-CA) debt limit negotiators, has told reporters that he has, "no doubt the debt ceiling bill will pass the House," despite an aggressive strategy from the Republican House Freedom Caucus today to whip opposition to the bill.
- McHenry: "...More than half of House Republicans will support the bill."
- Punchbowl News' Jake Sherman tweets: [House Freedom Caucus] is basically positioning this as a fight between them and the leadership. They will try to whip against the bill to keep McCarthy's total to less than half of the Republican conference while McCarthy tries to maximize his vote total."
- Garret Haake at NBC tweets: "The mystery Republican on Rules, [Rep Thomas Massie] says he will announce his decision on the debt bill soon, via Twitter, after discussing it with his wife. 'I don’t make any decisions without her.'"
- Massie is widely considered the swing vote on the House Rules committee. Without his support conservatives on the committee will be unable to prevent the bill moving to the House floor for a full vote tomorrow.
- The Committee meets in approximately one hour to deliberate on the bill.
GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 1.2547/2641 High May 16 / 11
- RES 2: 1.2493 High May 18
- RES 1: 1.2436/46 20-day EMA / High May 30
- PRICE: 1.2407 @ 16:02 BST May 30
- SUP 1: 1.2308 Low May 25
- SUP 2: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
- SUP 3: 1.2242 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - May 10 bull run
- SUP 4: 1.2213 Low Mar 27
GBPUSD traded higher Tuesday, extending the bounce from last week’s 1.2308 low on May 25. Short-term gains are considered corrective, for now, and the trend direction remains down. Price has recently breached the 50-day EMA and 1.2345, the Apr 10 low. This opens 1.2242 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 1.2436, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal a possible reversal.
