EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
US
MNI FED: VC Jefferson Eyes Higher Risks To Both Sides Of Mandate, But No Rush To Cut
Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (permanent FOMC voter) provides a fairly even-handed outlook for the economy with his views appearing to correspond to those of the center of the Committee. He doesn't exactly repeat the language he's employed in recent months of being in "no need to be in a hurry" to cut rates, but the overall tone in his latest speech is consistent with a wait-and-see attitude on hard data and open-mindedness on whether tariffs will be persistently inflationary. Overall, he thinks uncertainty is likely to prevail for "some time".
NEWS
MNI US: White House Publishes Fact Sheet On $1.2T Qatar Deal
The White House has published a fact sheet claiming that US President Donald Trump has signed an "agreement with Qatar to generate an economic exchange worth at least $1.2 trillion." The announcement is the second major investment deal of Trump's Middle East trip, following a deal with Saudi Arabia yesterday worth $600B, per the White House. The White House notes that the Qatar agreement includes separate deals, "totaling more than $243.5 billion between the United States and Qatar, including an historic sale of Boeing aircraft and GE Aerospace engines to Qatar Airways."
MNI MACRO ANALYSIS: US Investment Pledges Under Trump In Context
The magnitude of investment in the US under the second Trump administration has been a point of contention in US politics. The following helps quantify the amounts seen, which we estimate to be a max case of $0.85trn per year through the presidential term. That’s worth 2.9% of latest annualized GDP which compares with non-residential investment worth 13.8% GDP in 2024 with a harder outstanding question of to what extent the pledged amounts from US-based investments were already planned. The below doesn’t include the just announced $1.2trn “economic exchange” with Qatar which looks particularly light on investments judging by the White House statement.
MNI MACRO ANALYSIS: US Investment Pledges Under Trump In Context
For context, the flow of total investment in the US summed to $4.0trn in 2024 (from standard national accounts), of which $0.9trn was in structures, $1.5trn in equipment and $1.6tn in IP. That total was worth 13.8% GDP in 2024, close to the high end for previous cycles having rarely exceeded and last higher with the Dotcom bubble, peaking at 15% GDP in 2000.
MNI TARIFFS: Fox-US Nears Trade Deals w/ Japan & South Korea
Charles Gasparino at Fox Business posts on X: "Trade-tariff deals with Japan and South Korea said to be “close,” according to me Wall Street sources close to the White House. Timing unclear. India deal as well though it has been throttled by the tensions with Pakistan."
MNI US: House Ways And Means Committee Approves Republican Tax Bill
The House Ways and Means Committee has approved the Republican tax bill in a 26-19 vote, along party lines, following a 17-hour markup. The other two crucial committee markups - Agriculture and Energy and Commerce - are set to resume today with safety net programmes - Medicaid (E&C) and SNAP (Ag.) - the focus of debate. Punchbowl reports that the final Ways and Means markup failed to resolve the dispute between blue-state Republicans and GOP leadership over the cap on State and Local Tax deductions (SALT).
US TSYS
MNI US TSYS: Projected Rate Cut Pricing Continues to Cool
OVERNIGHT DATA
MNI US DATA: A Tentative Pause In Tighter Mortgage Lending Standards
MBA composite mortgage applications increased 1.1% last week (sa) to essentially hold steady after a noisy period on swings in mortgage rates. Spreads to swap rates have stopped climbing although mortgage rates look set for a further increase ahead. Overall applications stand at 53% of 2019 levels, close to the 51.5% in late March ahead of tariff announcements that sparked large gyrations in rates,
MARKETS SNAPSHOT
Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA down 82.38 points (-0.2%) at 42057.94
S&P E-Mini Future up 4.75 points (0.08%) at 5909.5
Nasdaq up 133.3 points (0.7%) at 19143.74
US 10-Yr yield is up 7.1 bps at 4.5363%
US Jun 10-Yr futures are down 9.5/32 at 109-21.5
EURUSD down 0.0018 (-0.16%) at 1.1167
USDJPY down 0.62 (-0.42%) at 146.86
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) down $0.82 (-1.29%) at $62.85
Gold is down $68.92 (-2.12%) at $3181.39
European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 down 12.77 points (-0.24%) at 5403.44
FTSE 100 down 17.91 points (-0.21%) at 8585.01
German DAX down 111.55 points (-0.47%) at 23527.01
French CAC 40 down 37.04 points (-0.47%) at 7836.79
US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE
3M10Y +6.149, 13.903 (L: 3.649 / H: 14.301)
2Y10Y +1.643, 47.711 (L: 45.014 / H: 48.211)
2Y30Y +1.18, 91.355 (L: 89.108 / H: 93.001)
5Y30Y -0.419, 80.238 (L: 79.927 / H: 83.155)
Current futures levels:
Jun 2-Yr futures down 2.75/32 at 103-6.5 (L: 103-06.25 / H: 103-11)
Jun 5-Yr futures down 6.75/32 at 107-9 (L: 107-08.25 / H: 107-22)
Jun 10-Yr futures down 9.5/32 at 109-21.5 (L: 109-20 / H: 110-09.5)
Jun 30-Yr futures down 14/32 at 112-8 (L: 112-06 / H: 113-11)
Jun Ultra futures down 19/32 at 115-14 (L: 115-12 / H: 116-28)
MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Bear Mode Condition
Treasury futures extended a softer tone following recent weakness. Support at 110-01+, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 1 bull leg, has been cleared. The breach strengthens a bearish theme and exposes a key support at 109-08, the Apr 24 low and a bear trigger. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 111-22, the May 7 high. A move above this level is required to signal a potential reversal.
SOFR FUTURES CLOSE
Jun 25 steady00 at 95.70
Sep 25 -0.025 at 95.905
Dec 25 -0.045 at 96.135
Mar 26 -0.060 at 96.310
Red Pack (Jun 26-Mar 27) -0.06 to -0.045
Green Pack (Jun 27-Mar 28) -0.05 to -0.045
Blue Pack (Jun 28-Mar 29) -0.05 to -0.045
Gold Pack (Jun 29-Mar 30) -0.05 to -0.045
REFERENCE RATES (PRIOR SESSION)
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates
STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage climbs to $165.024B this afternoon from $144.214B yesterday, total number of counterparties at 36. Usage had fallen to $54.772B last Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B.
MNI PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $3.5B Woodside Finance 4Pt Launched
MNI BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Weakness Persists
European yields rose Wednesday for the third session this week, with periphery EGB spreads narrowing.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
MNI FOREX: USD Index Fully Reverses Monday Surge Before Stabilising
THURSDAY DATA CALENDAR
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
15/05/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | ![]() | UK Monthly GDP |
15/05/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | ![]() | Index of Services |
15/05/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | ![]() | Index of Production |
15/05/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | ![]() | Output in the Construction Industry |
15/05/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | ![]() | GDP First Estimate |
15/05/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | ![]() | Norway GDP |
15/05/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | ![]() | Trade Balance |
15/05/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** | ![]() | HICP (f) |
15/05/2025 | 0700/0900 | ![]() | Flash GDP | |
15/05/2025 | 0700/0900 | ![]() | ECB's Cipollone at Payments Forum | |
15/05/2025 | 0750/0950 | ![]() | ECB's Elderson At Green Finance Conference | |
15/05/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | ![]() | Industrial Production |
15/05/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | ![]() | GDP (p) |
15/05/2025 | 1015/1215 | ![]() | ECB's De Guindos At ISDA Meeting | |
15/05/2025 | 1130/1330 | ![]() | ECB's Cipollone In Digital Currency Fireside Chat | |
15/05/2025 | 1215/0815 | ** | ![]() | CMHC Housing Starts |
15/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | Jobless Claims |
15/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
15/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
15/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | Wholesale Trade |
15/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | Retail Sales |
15/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | PPI |
15/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
15/05/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
15/05/2025 | 1240/0840 | ![]() | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | |
15/05/2025 | 1300/0900 | * | ![]() | CREA Existing Home Sales |
15/05/2025 | 1315/0915 | *** | ![]() | Industrial Production |
15/05/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | ![]() | Business Inventories |
15/05/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | ![]() | NAHB Home Builder Index |
15/05/2025 | 1400/1500 | ![]() | BOE Dhingra At New Economics Foundation conference | |
15/05/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | ![]() | Natural Gas Stocks |
15/05/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | ![]() | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
15/05/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | ![]() | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
15/05/2025 | 1800/1400 | *** | ![]() | Mexico Interest Rate |
15/05/2025 | 1805/1405 | ![]() | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
16/05/2025 | 2350/0850 | *** | ![]() | GDP |
16/05/2025 | 0430/1330 | ** | ![]() | Industrial Production |