US TSY FUTURES: Mix Of Short Setting & Long Cover Seen On Tuesday
OI data points to a mix of net short setting and long cover during Tuesday’s downtick in futures, with the most meaningful net positioning swings coming via net short setting in TU futures and net long cover in FV futures.
| 08-Jul-25 | 07-Jul-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,354,026 | 4,285,962 | +68,064 | +2,590,500 |
FV | 7,007,587 | 7,034,656 | -27,069 | -1,166,321 |
TY | 4,920,369 | 4,933,087 | -12,718 | -837,542 |
UXY | 2,416,310 | 2,420,925 | -4,615 | -401,207 |
US | 1,830,260 | 1,835,915 | -5,655 | -777,081 |
WN | 1,960,908 | 1,957,874 | +3,034 | +551,120 |
|
| Total | +21,041 | -40,530 |
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US TSY OPTIONS: TYQ5 112.50 Calls Lifted
Recent flow in the TYQ5 112.50 calls saw paper pay 0-16 on 5K.
EQUITIES: US and EU Roll Views ahead of Triple Witching
Looking ahead to the Equity Roll, couple of views: Triple Witching is the 20th June.
JPM on US:
- They see the Rolls mostly trading rich vs Fair value, as such they are more tilted to the bearish side in the SPX, NDX, and RTY.
- But they add that the US CPI this Week, the FOMC on the 18th June, as well spot moves, could dampen some of that View.
JPM on EU:
- While they don't see Positioning as long as it was during Q1, they anticipate some early Long Positions to be rolled early in the main European Indices.
GILTS: Early Rally Fades A Little, Curve Flatter
Gilts are off session highs after looking to Tsys and Bunds for cues for much of the morning.
- Futures trade as high as 92.17 before easing back to ~92.00, sticking within Friday’s range.
- The contract still trades closer to recent highs. The latest rally undermines the bearish theme. Key short-term resistance at 91.87, the May 20 high, has been cleared. This signals scope for an extension higher and sights are on 92.79, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support has been defined at 91.44, the Jun 4 low.
- Yields 0.5-2.0bp, curve flatter.
- 2s10s ~61bp, recent breaks below 60bp haven’t been sustained.
- 5s30s ~117bp, after forcing the first sub-120bp closes since early April last week.
- GBP STIRs still trade around levels flagged pre-gilt open, showing ~40bp of cuts through December.
- UK headline flow remains limited ahead of tomorrow’s labour market report and Wednesday’s spending review.
- A reminder that the BoE has shifted its focus to survey-based labour market inferences given the ongoing issues with the ONS data.
- Meanwhile, the spending review contains plenty of political hurdles for PM Starmer & Chancellor Reeves to navigate (as we have already detailed in earlier bullets and our Global Week Ahead).
- Expect our deeper previews of both events in due course.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Jun-25 | 4.218 | +0.6 |
Aug-25 | 4.062 | -15.0 |
Sep-25 | 4.021 | -19.1 |
Nov-25 | 3.879 | -33.3 |
Dec-25 | 3.817 | -39.5 |
Feb-26 | 3.725 | -48.7 |
Mar-26 | 3.705 | -50.7 |
