US TSY FUTURES: Mix Of Positioning Swings On Tuesday
Feb-04 11:13
OI data points to a mix of net short setting (TU), long cover (FV & US) and long setting (UXY) on Tuesday.
- Note that TY futures were unchanged come settlement, which means that we cannot provide much inference re: the largest net positioning swing on the day (which accounted for ~$5.7mln of the curve-wide net ~$8.2mln DV01 exposure reduction).
| 03-Feb-26 | 02-Feb-26 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,648,451 | 4,639,203 | +9,248 | +342,533 |
FV | 6,825,088 | 6,851,544 | -26,456 | -1,131,862 |
TY | 5,448,848 | 5,536,359 | -87,511 | -5,728,164 |
UXY | 2,609,721 | 2,603,831 | +5,890 | +521,356 |
US | 1,711,064 | 1,724,249 | -13,185 | -1,796,525 |
WN | 2,183,694 | 2,186,179 | -2,485 | -447,937 |
|
| Total | -114,499 | -8,240,599 |
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EUR: Pressure on EURUSD Persists, Consolidates Back below 1.17
Jan-05 11:08
- Attempts above the 1.1800 handle in EURUSD across December proved short-lived, with the latest dynamics attached to renewed geopolitical concerns weighing further on the pair, which has tracked back below 1.17 on Monday.
- Largely reflective of the broader move for the DXY, the latest EURUSD price action sees spot testing below its 50-day EMA (intersecting at 1.1683), an average that held well in early December. This strengthens a short-term bearish theme, and a clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement to 1.1639, a Fibonacci retracement.
- On Friday we wrote about how seasonality favours a lower EURUSD in January, accessible here: https://mni.marketnews.com/45xfWkL
- The Eurozone December flash inflation round has been split across three weeks due to the holiday period. Belgium, Spain and Portugal have already released flash data, with remaining countries and the Eurozone-wide figure due this week.
- Of greater significance, US ISM figures and employment data will be key in setting the US tone ahead of the FOMC’s January 28 decision. Separately, the announcement of the new Fed Chair remains a key risk for the greenback.
LOOK AHEAD: ISM Manufacturing Kickstarts The Weekly US Data Calendar
Jan-05 11:00
- Today’s US data calendar is clearly centered around the ISM manufacturing report at 1000ET.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for a small uptick from 48.2 to 48.4 (range 47.5-49.4), although other indicators suggest softer activity in Dec than in Nov with caveats.
- For more, see our previews on activity: US PREVIEW: Limited Improvement Seen For ISM Manufacturing In December (1/2) - Jan 2
- And price components: US PREVIEW: ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Set To Dip In Dec, Still High (2/2) - Jan 2
- Wednesday will then see ISM services along with the start of labor data with the monthly ADP report for Dec (Bloomberg consensus of 48k chimes much more closely with the weekly series having been too optimistic the previous month) and JOLTS report for Nov.
- That of course builds up to the BLS nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, back on its original release schedule.
- See the full weekly economic data below:
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX Futures Bull Cycle Extends
Jan-05 10:55
- In the equity space, short-term weakness in S&P E-Minis appears corrective. A key short-term support has been defined at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement and would also highlight a possible short-term reversal. First support lies at 6861.82, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, sights are on key resistance at 7014.00, the Oct 30 high.Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend.
- A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact and a fresh cycle high today, reinforces the bull theme and confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 5935.01 next, a 0.764 projection of the Nov 21 - Dec 12 - 18 price swing. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 5762.47, the 20-day EMA.
