US TSYS: Mildly Firmer Within Ranges, State-Level Claims Data Watched Late On
Oct-16 11:00
- Treasuries are mildly firmer on the day, comfortably within yesterday’s range, having struggled to move below 4% 10Y yields earlier this week.
- Today sees heavy Fedspeak, albeit from some repeat speakers plus data focus on regional Fed measures before state-level claims later on when they should be released in the afternoon. President Trump is set to make an announcement this afternoon but with no known topic just yet.
- Cash yields are 0.5-1.5bp lower across the curve, within yesterday’s range.
- 10Y yields (currently 4.020%, -0.8bps) again tested the 4% handle yesterday on two separate occasions, including a low of 3.9975% after Tuesday’s 3.9976%, finding clear support at this level. Whilst there were brief clearances on Sep 17 and Sep 11, yields were last materially sub-4% in early April under reciprocal tariff deliberations.
- TYZ5 trades at 113-11+ (+04) on subdued cumulative volumes of 230k.
- Tue/Wed highs of 113-17+ mark initial resistance ahead of a bull trigger at 113-29 (Sep 11 high). Alternatively, the recent uplift has dragged support up to 112-27+ (20-day EMA).
- Data: Philly Fed mfg (0830ET), NY Fed services Oct (0830ET), NAHB housing index Oct (1000ET), Dallas Fed weekly economic index (1130ET), State-level jobless claims likely to be released from afternoon ET
- Fedspeak: Miran on Fox (~0700ET), Waller on BBG TV (~0730ET), Waller (0900ET), Barr (0900ET), Miran (0900ET), Bowman (1000ET), Miran (1615ET), Kashkari (1800ET) – see Fedspeak bullet.
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $110B 4W, $95B 8W bill auctions (1130ET)
- Politics: Trump makes an announcement (1500ET)
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Historical bullets
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Bulls Still In Charge
Sep-16 10:58
- On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and has started the week on a firmer note - yesterday the metal traded to a fresh all-time high, once again. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is the $3700.00 handle and $3705.2, a 1.382 projection of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing. Initial firm support lies at $3532.8, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, the trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible recent reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.71, the May 30 low.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Trend Sequence Intact
Sep-16 10:52
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 3: 114-10 1.0% 10-dma envelope / High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 2: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 113-29 High Sep 5
- PRICE: 113-13+ @ 11:41 BST Sep 16
- SUP 1: 112-25+ 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 112-04 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 110-25 Low Aug 1
Treasury futures rallied to a fresh cycle high last Thursday, strengthening current bullish conditions. Note that the recent impulsive rally highlights an acceleration of the uptrend. Also, moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. This suggests scope for an extension through 114-00 next and a test of 114-10, the Apr 7 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch is 112-25+, the 20-day EMA.
US TSYS: Monday Gains Held Ahead Of Retail Sales, Import Prices and 20Y Supply
Sep-16 10:49
- Treasuries broadly consolidate yesterday’s modest, headline-light rally, having pared earlier gains that saw 5s to 10s push above yesterday’s range before retreating.
- Today sees a solid data docket headlined by retail sales and import prices, potential comments from President Trump as he departs for the UK after yesterday’s appeals court ruling re his attempt at firing Fed Governor Cook, and 20Y supply.
- Cash yields range from 0.8bp lower (2s) to 0.5bp higher (20s), with upcoming supply possibly behind that modest underperformance for 20s.
- TYZ5 trades at 113-13+ on another tepid overnight session with cumulative volumes at 190k.
- An earlier high of 113-16+ nudged above yesterday’s range although it hasn’t troubled resistance at 113-29 (Sep 5 high), continuing the bullish trend sequence.
- Data: Retail sales Aug (0830ET), Import prices Aug (0830ET), NY Fed services Sep (0830ET), IP/Cap Util Aug (0915ET), NAHB Sep (1000ET), Business inventories Jul (1000ET)
- Coupon issuance: $13bn 20Y re-open - 912810UN6 (1300ET). Last week’s 30Y auction was on the screws but with stronger details. That’s in contrast to last month’s 20Y auction which was in-line but with the bid-to-cover slipping from 2.79 to 2.54 and indirect take-up dropping from 67.4% to 60.6%.
- Bill issuance: $85bn 6W bills (1130ET)
- Politics: Trump departs the White House for London (0830ET, open press pool), Trump lands in London (1520ET)
