US STOCKS: Midday Equities Roundup: Unwinding Early Support
Oct-15 17:38
* Stocks had extended session highs earlier after Treasury Sec Bessent suggested the possibility o...
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STIR: Dec 2025 Fed Funds Implied Rate Almost Fully Reverses Claims Hit
Sep-15 17:36
- Fed Funds implied rates see the Dec’25 lead today’s increase, currently 2bp higher from Friday’s close to have almost fully reversed Thursday’s drop seen on a surprise uptick in initial jobless claims along with the broader US CPI report.
- It’s likely a positioning play, with the sole data being a surprisingly weak Empire manufacturing report.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 26bp for Wed, 46bp Oct, 68bp Dec, 81.5bp Jan and 95.5bp Mar.
- SOFR futures hold the session’s twist flattening, with U5 and Z5 1 tick lower vs gains of up to 2.5 ticks in U6 and Z6.
- The SOFR implied terminal yield of 2.915% (SFRH7, -1.5bp) meanwhile is unchanged from when US desks filtered in. It remains off last Monday's close of 2.84% (lowest since Sep 2024 and one of the lowest for the cycle) but still points to more than 140bp of cuts ahead.
- Still to come today, Miran’s Senate confirmation vote (expected to pass having already passed the Banking Committee 13-11). The cloture vote is at ~1730ET before the full confirmation voter at ~2000ET.
- We also expect at some point to hear a ruling in the ongoing Trump-Cook case on whether the court will grant a stay on the decision that allowed Cook to remain in her job for now (and thus attend this week’s FOMC meeting starting tomorrow before the decision on Wed).
MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI Interviews Former Fed Economist Claudia Sahm
Sep-15 17:05
- MNI interviews former Fed economist Claudia Sahm -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
US STOCKS: A Minor Dip Off All-Time Highs, Alphabet The Fourth $3tn Company
Sep-15 17:01
- ESZ5 has softened a little in recent trading but at 6672.00 (+0.4%) still trades close to its earlier fresh all-time high of 6681.25, with gains at the time extended by Trump suggesting a move to semi-annual reporting for corporates.
- Next resistance is seen at 6685.25 (1.00 proj of Aug 1-15-20 price swing) after which lies the round 6700. Support meanwhile isn’t seen until 6546 (20-day EMA).
- Some large idiosyncratic moves at play include Tesla (+5.6%) after Musk bought ~$1bn of shares, Alphabet (+3.3%) having become the fourth extending company with a market cap in excess of $3trn after building on previous gains from a recent antitrust ruling and Oracle (+3.3%) attributed to data center construction expectations along with Seagate Technology up 7.8%. Other notable gains include Amazon (+1.6%) and Apple (+1.0%).
- Nvidia meanwhile is back to flat, gaining intraday with a lack of fresh headlines at the China trade delegation press conference after Bessent-He talks. It had dragged pre-market and earlier in the session after China said it violated antitrust regulations with its acquisition of Mellanox.
- Leaders: Communication services (+2.0%), consumer discretionary (+1.4%) and IT (+0.5%).
- Laggards: Health care (-1.0%), consumer staples (-0.8%) and materials (-0.6%).
- The tech-heavy nature of day’s gains unsurprisingly sees NDQ outperform at +0.65% (20 pts off earlier all-time highs of 24274.80). The Russell 2000 also performs well (+0.4%) whilst the Dow Jones lags (+0.05%).
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