NATGAS: Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Slightly Higher
Nov-17 12:06
TTF front month is slightly higher supported by expected higher demand due to cold weather this week.
- TTF DEC 25 up 0.5% at 31.4€/MWh
- Ukraine has secured US LNG imports from Greece to cover its winter needs from December through to March, Greek and Ukrainian officials said cited by Reuters.
- The Adriano Knutsen vessel, carrying a cargo from the US Corpus Chrsti terminal, has diverted away from Europe toward Egypt, according to Bloomberg ship tracking.
- Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to trend colder this week to a low around Nov. 21 before to gradual recovery back to near normal into the last few days of the month. CWE Wind is expected to be stable over 18-20 November before a brief drop on Nov. 21.
- NW European LNG sendout dipped to 243.8mcm/d on Nov. 16 compared to an average of 258.3mcm/d over the previous week, Bloomberg shows.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are stable at 336.9mcm/d today. Gassco shows unavailable capacity of 38.9mcm/d today including an unplanned Karsto outage of 9.1mcm/d due to process problems which has been extended again until tomorrow.
- European gas storage was down to 82.02% full on Nov. 15, according to GIE data, as net withdrawals continues at smaller than normal rates. The previous five-year seasonal average is 90.6% full.
- Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is 45.5 mcm/d today compared to an average of 47.6mcm/d so far this month and a high of 55.9 mcm/d on Nov. 10, Bloomberg shows.
- China’s Yangjiang LNG terminal in western Guangdong province has received its first cargo, according to Bloomberg citing China News Service.
- Global LNG markets will likely remain oversupplied even if Chinese imports surge on lower prices, according to Goldman Sachs analysts cited by Bloomberg.
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LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead Headlined By Delayed CPI Report On Friday
Oct-17 20:51
- The September US CPI report will be released on Friday, delayed amidst the government shutdown but with the BLS making a special exception on social security payment considerations.
- Bloomberg consensus looks for headline CPI inflation at a rounded 0.4% M/M after 0.38% back in August and for Y/Y inflation to firm two tenths to 3.1% for what would be its highest since May 2024.
- Core inflation is seen at a rounded 0.3% M/M after 0.35% in August (exceeding the median unrounded estimate of 0.31%) and 0.32% in July. It’s expected to see core CPI inflation hold at 3.1% Y/Y having in August increased to its highest since February.
- Core details should see focus on both goods and services angles: underlying goods inflation has clearly firmed in recent months on tariff pressures although the median increase has currently seen a peak back in June, whilst services will be watched for any spillover after some strong recent non-housing readings.
- The report will come within the FOMC blackout period ahead of the Oct 28-29 decision, with a 25bp cut fully priced and likely needing a large surprise to alter this.
- As for broader inflation details, Fed Chair Powell this week confusingly suggested that we will have the September PPI report but the BLS had previously said “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services”.
US DATA: Latest Jobless Claims Estimates During The Shutdown
Oct-17 20:30
As noted earlier, MNI estimates initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 218k in the week to Oct 11 and continuing claims at a seasonally adjusted 1929k in the week to Oct 4.
- To give a better idea of sensitivity around these estimates, which rely on estimates for some missing states, we note the below analyst estimates:
- Goldman Sachs have a central estimate of 217k for initial claims in a range of 211-225k, whilst they see continuing claims at 1917k in a range of 1885-1930k.
- JPMorgan meanwhile also see 217k for initial claims whilst they see continuing claims as having held constant at 1927k.
NATGAS: Venture Global in Talks with Ukraine for more LNG Deliveries, Reuters
Oct-17 20:28
Ukraine is seeking more cargoes from Venture’s Plaquemines facility as the embattled nation approaches the winter heating season, according to Reuters sources
- Venture is in talks with Ukraine’s DTEK to procure more LNG cargoes after a year of gas infrastructure attacks by the Russians.
- Venture Global CEO Michael Sabel met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday October 16.
- DTEK signed an agreement in 2024 for an undisclosed amount of LNG from the facility, as well as 2 mtpa from Calcasieu Pass Phase 2 currently under construction.
- Plaquemines currently has spare capacity to deliver more cargoes to Ukraine on the spot market, per Reuters.
- Plaquemines now sends out the second highest LNG volume in the US, with feedgas demand averaging 3.45 bcf/d according to MNI figures.
