NATGAS: Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Rises
TTF front month is rising again today despite above normal temperatures expected for the remainder of the month and a restart of production at the Shah Deniz Alpha platform. Above normal storage withdrawals continue to add upside.
- TTF FEB 25 up 0.2% at 47€/MWh
- Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to rise this week and back above normal from mid-week. The second week of the outlook remains above normal although could drift lower into the start of February.
- European net gas storage withdrawals have reduced slightly from the high levels last week but remain above normal.
- European gas storage has fallen to 60.97% full on Jan. 18, according to GIE, compared to the previous five-year average of 68.2%. Net withdrawals have reduced slightly from the high levels last week but remain above normal.
- Based on the withdrawal rates from the last ten years from now until the end of March the EU storage level would fall to an average of 36.4% at the end of the season with a range between 25.0% and 44.3%.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated back up to 337.1mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
- BP has resumed operations at its Shah Deniz gas and condensate field in Azerbaijan it said on Sunday.
- At least six LNG vessels diverted from Asia to Europe this month drawn by higher European prices and more sluggish Asian demand according to Kpler tracking.
- Cyclone Sean forced the closure of northern ports in Western Australia, including Port Hedland, Dampier, and Cape Preston West, from Jan. 18-19 as a precaution, Platts said, with no impact to LNG production.
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TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU WANTS GOVT TO PREPARE FOR NEW US ADMINISTRATION
- TRUDEAU DOESN'T ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS LEADERSHIP
USDCAD TECHS: A Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4356 @ 16:56 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.4174/4014 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. While price faded into the Thursday close, the recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4174, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6501 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6396 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6263 @ 16:55 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6396, the 20-day EMA.
