NATGAS: Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Lowest Since May 21
TTF front month has dropped to its lowest since May 21 as supply concerns have eased following the disruption to Norwegian pipeline gas supplies to Europe last week. EU gas storage is robust despite slow injections rates while demand in the region remains muted.
- TTF JUL 24 down 1.9% at 32.49€/MWh
- TTF Q3 24 down 1.8% at 32.91€/MWh
- TTF WIN 24 down 1.5% at 36.84€/MWh
- TTF SUM 25 down 1.4% at 34.35€/MWh
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe have recovered to 325.1mcm/d today with the repairs to the Sleipner Riser Platform complete. Flows are however still restricted by an outage at the Visund field, reducing capacity by 15.4mcm/d until June 17.
- Below normal temperatures are expected in NW and central Europe this week but are forecast to edge back up to normal or just above into the second half of June.
- European LNG sendout was around 228mcm/d on June 8 according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 242mcm/d so far in June and 281mcm/d in May.
- Total European gas storage was up to 71.62% full on June 8 according to GIE compared to the five-year seasonal average of 60.3% as below normal net injection rates continue.
- The Hoegh Galleon FSRU to be used as an LNG import facility for Egypt based at Ain Sukhna is headed to Egypt after leaving the Sagunto LNG terminal in Spain during the weekend.
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JGB TECHS: (M4) Remains Above Key Support
- RES 3: 148.74 - High Jul 24
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger
- RES 1: 145.95 - High Mar 25 1
- PRICE: 144.21 @ 16:18 BST May 10
- SUP 1: 143.61 - Low Apr 25
- SUP 2: 143.44 - Low Oct 31 (cont) and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 141.65 - 1.00 proj of Mar 22 - Nov 1 ‘23 - Jan 15 price swing
A bear trend in JGB futures remains intact, despite a corrective bounce this week. The contract is for now trading above key support and bear trigger at 143.44, the Nov 1 low. A stronger reversal higher is required to signal the end of the recent downward phase. Key resistance is at 145.95, the Mar 28 high. A break would signal scope for a climb towards the bull trigger at 147.74, the mid-January high. On the downside, a move through 143.44 would strengthen a bearish condition.
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (M4) Trend Needle Continues To Point South
- RES 3: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.110 - High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 95.800 - High Apr 19
- PRICE: 95.630 @ 16:16 BST May 10
- SUP 1: 95.235 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov - Dec ‘23 rally
- SUP 2: 94.965 - Low Oct 31 ‘23
- SUP 3: 94.866 - 2.618 proj of the Dec 28 - Jan 19 - Feb 2 price swing
A bearish cycle in Aussie 10yr futures remains in play, despite the corrective bounce on the RBA decision. Any return lower would signal scope for a move towards 95.235, a Fibonacci retracement point on the continuation chart. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 95.800, the Apr 19 high. A break would highlight a possible reversal and signal scope for a climb towards 96.110, the Dec 28 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
- RES 1: 1.3785 High Apr 30
- PRICE: 1.3662 @ 16:27 BST May 10
- SUP 1: 1.3634 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3610 Low May 3
- SUP 3: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
A bullish trend condition in USDCAD remains intact for now, despite Thursday’s weakness. Key support to watch is 1.3634, the 50-day EMA. This average was pierced last Friday, but remains intact as a support, for now. A continuation higher would expose the key resistance and bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend.
