US STOCKS: Mega Meta Stock Offer Hammers Nasdaq Further

• Crude saw a sharp decline on Wednesday amid reports that the US and Iran were closing in on a deal to end the war. Prices recovered somewhat amid hardline rhetoric from Iran and scepticism around whether the US proposal is acceptable to Iran.
• WTI Jun 26 is down by 7.7% at $94.4/bbl.
• Axios reported a belief in the White House that it is getting close to a memorandum of understanding with Iran to end the war. Iran would begin to open the Strait of Hormuz, while the US would lift its blockade.
• The US proposal appears to include a moratorium on nuclear enrichment and Al Jazeera reports that Iran will not accept nuclear discussions at this stage.
• The primary bull cycle in WTI remains intact. However, today’s strong sell-off highlights an extension of the corrective cycle that started on Apr 30.
• The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA, exposing the next key support at $89.28, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.
• Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $110.93, the Apr 30 high.
• Meanwhile, precious metals have rallied today, aided by the weaker US dollar in the risk-on move.
• Spot gold is up by 2.9% at $4,688/oz, while silver has rallied by 5.9% to $77.2/oz.
• For gold, a continuation of gains would open round number resistance at $5,000.

• Risk sentiment improved markedly overnight after Axios reported that "U.S. and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war," citing officials. Stocks surged as crude prices ratcheted lower on the story.
• June WTI falling from around $102.70/bbl to nearly $89/bbl early Tuesday before bouncing back to appr $94.5/bbl as markets sifted through US/Iran rhetoric for more concrete facts.
• Stocks plowed higher even as some headlines tempered optimism, such as Pres Trump telling the NY Post that it's "too soon" to prepare for a peace signing."
• SPX eminis rose to a new high of 7380.75, Nasdaq to a new high of 25776.39, while the DJIA gained over 1.1% to 49923.00 - still off the Feb 10 high of 50500.71.
• Industrials, Materials and IT sector shares led advances in the first half, Davita up over 20.5% after reporting better than expected earnings and optimistic forward guidance. Also on strong earnings, AMD gained 17.65%, adding they are well positioned to ride the AI demand wave.
• Not surprisingly, Energy sector shares led declines with oil and gas shares broadly weaker on the decline in crude prices, the following down 6% to 7% ahead midday: Devon Energy Corp, Coterra Energy, Occidental Petroleum, APA Corp and Valero Energy.

• RES 4: 161.46 1.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
• RES 3: 160.72 High Apr 30 and the bull trigger  
• RES 2: 158.63 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 158.32 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 156.34 @ 16:46 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 155.04 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 155.01 Uptrendline drawn off Apr’25 low
• SUP 3: 154.00 Low Feb 23
• SUP 4: 153.07 Low Feb 18  

A bearish theme in USDJPY remains intact and today’s volatile price activity reinforces current conditions. Attention is on trendline support at 155.01, drawn off the 2025 low. This represents the next key support and a clear break of it would strengthen a bear theme. This would open 154.00, the Feb 23 low. Initial firm resistance is 158.32, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would be a bullish development and expose 160.72, the Apr 30 high.