EQUITIES: Medium-Term Bull Trend in Eurostoxx Futures Intact
A medium-term bull trend in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. Price has managed to find support below two important price points; the 50-day EMA, at 5576.77, and 5571.50, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. A clear break of both levels would strengthen a bear theme and highlight a stronger reversal. The bull trigger is 5742.00, the Oct 29 high. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the pullback since the Oct 30 high appears corrective. The contract has managed to find support below the 50-day EMA, currently at 6710.28 and a key support. Friday’s activity also highlights a potential reversal signal - a bullish doji candle. This defines key support at 6655.50, the Oct 7 low. A continuation higher would signal the end of a correction and open 6953.75, Oct 30 high and bull trigger.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 635.39 pts or +1.26% at 50911.76 and the TOPIX ended 18.57 pts higher or +0.56% at 3317.42.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 21.041 pts or +0.53% at 4018.597 and the HANG SENG ended 407.23 pts higher or +1.55% at 26649.06.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 410.03 pts or +1.74% at 23978.42, FTSE 100 higher by 83.98 pts or +0.87% at 9766.47, CAC 40 up 110.91 pts or +1.4% at 8061.11 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 94.47 pts or +1.7% at 5661.04.
- Dow Jones mini up 206 pts or +0.44% at 47292, S&P 500 mini up 66 pts or +0.98% at 6820, NASDAQ mini up 387.25 pts or +1.54% at 25555.
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
