STIR: Markets Remain Unsure Around Timing Of Final ECB Cut
- ECB-dated OIS are up to 1bp more hawkish than yesterday’s close, but still lean in favour of one more 25bp cut this cycle (22bps of easing are priced through March 2026). Only 3bps of cuts are priced through September, with a more marked deterioration in activity and inflation data seemingly required to put a move at that meeting back on the table.
- Euribor futures are flat to -1.0 ticks through the blues. The Z5/H6 spread is currently at 12-month lows of -5.0 ticks (vs -2.5 at the start of July, -3.0 at the start of June).
- Outgoing Austrian National Bank Governor Holzmann said “there is no longer any reason to lower interest rates further”. Holzmann will not be on the Governing Council at the September decision, so this unsurprising view should be discounted.
- Today’s regional calendar includes June Eurozone retail sales (consensus 0.3% M/M, -0.7% prior) and Italian industrial production (consensus -0.2%, -0.7% prior).
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Sep-25 | 1.892 | -3.2 |
| Oct-25 | 1.854 | -7.0 |
| Dec-25 | 1.769 | -15.5 |
| Feb-26 | 1.744 | -18.0 |
| Mar-26 | 1.705 | -21.9 |
| Apr-26 | 1.705 | -22.0 |
| Jun-26 | 1.708 | -21.6 |
| Jul-26 | 1.712 | -21.3 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
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NORWAY: Manufacturing IP Consolidates Recent Strength, But Focus On CPI Thurs
Although a serially volatile release, Norwegian manufacturing industrial production has broadly consolidated the rise since October 2024. However, petroleum-related industries remain the clear outperformer since 2022. Positive momentum through 2025 has come despite rates being held at 4.50% until June 19. Guidance that Norges Bank is willing to cut up to two more times this year should provide further support to the mainland industrial economy. However, inflation will (as always) dictate the scope for further easing, keeping main domestic focus on Thursday’s June CPI report.
- 3m/3m manufacturing IP growth was 1.7% in May, up from 2.3% in April and 1.8% in March. While IP growth has shown little correlation with the manufacturing PMI, Statistics Norway’s industrial confidence metric has been a better coincident indicator. The Q2 Industry Survey is due on July 24.
- Petroleum-related manufacturing production rose 2.4% 3m/3m (vs 6.3% in April, 0.7% in March), while non-petroleum related production rose 0.9% (vs 2,7% in April, -0.5% in March).
- On a sequential basis, we note that durable goods production has fallen for three consecutive months. Relatively resilient retail sales momentum suggests there could be some upward core good inflationary pressure in the pipeline as a result.
USD: A positive start for the Dollar
- A positive start for the Dollar, the Currency is in the green against all the majors heading into the Tariff deadline day.
- Scott Bessent said over the Weekend that Countries without a deal will have a 3 Weeks extension Option to Negotiate.
- The biggest early losers withing G10s are the Kiwi and the Aussie, down 0.84% and 0.81% respectively.
- NZDUSD is eyeing the immediate support at 0.6005, this is followed by 0.5988.
- AUDUSD sees the next support at 0.6485.
- Despite the beat in the Sweden CPI coming above Consensus, the SEK is still down 0.10% at typing against the Greenback.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 6402.44 1.382 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 3: 6381.00 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 6356.12 1.236 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 1: 6333.25 High Jul 3
- PRICE: 6293.00 @ 07:25 BST Jul 7
- SUP 1: 6235.50 Low Jul 2
- SUP 2: 6138.46/6000.73 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 5811.50 Low May 23
- SUP 4: 5645.75 Low May 7
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish. Resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. This has been followed by a breach of key resistance and a bull trigger at 6277.50, the Feb 21 high. Sights are on 6356.12, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA - at 6000.73.
