NBP: Market On Lookout For Updated Forward Guidance In Today's Presser (1/2)

Below we summarise sell-side views released after the NBP's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and ahead of the Governor's press conference scheduled for 14:00BST/15:00CEST.

• Alior Bank write that the Governor has 'something to refer to and to comment on' and highlight the recent revision of gas tariffs and a lower-than-expected inflation path (including core inflation trajectory). On net, this raises the prospect of inflation returning to the target range in 2H25. They will also be looking for any hints on how the MPC perceives the macroeconomic backdrop in the wake of the presidential election, as well as the recent round of downgrades of economic forecasts for the global economy in the light of US trade policy.
• BGK note that the dearth of hints in the MPC statement implies greater importance of today's presser. In their view, lower gas tariffs and a muted CPI momentum in May create conducive conditions for guiding towards either starting an easing cycle from July (involving cuts at a pace of 25bp/quarter), or towards another outsized 50bp rate adjustment in July. A different outcome would be a hawkish surprise.
• BOS Bank observe that the statement was virtually unchanged from the May edition. In today's press conference, they will look for a clarification on the interest-rate outlook in the light of a lower inflation path and lower gas tariffs. They expect a 25bp rate cut in July; overall, they see room for 75bp worth of cuts in 2H25. However, considering an expected significant drop in headline inflation next month, they are not ruling out a stronger 50bp cut in July.
• According to Crédit Agricole, the tone of the statement was less dovish than in May, with the MPC reinstating the phrase 'the current level of the NBP interest rates is conducive to meeting the NBP inflation target in the medium term', which suggests limited space for further rate cuts. Still, they expect a 50bp cut in July, when the MPC receives a new macroeconomic projection. However, they think a scenario involving a 25bp cut in July and another 25bp cut in Q4 is also on the table. They expect today's presser to be 'slightly dovish'.
• ING's perception was that the statement was very similar to the one from May, which was used to justify a 50bp rate cut. The MPC did not mention the disinflationary effect of a reduction of natural gas tariffs from July, which in ING's view will bring inflation close to the NBP's target already next month. They think that there is still plenty of room to ease monetary policy. They expect the next projection to include a lower inflation path, which will allow the MPC to cut rates by 25bp and launch an easing cycle, bringing the reference rate to 4.50% by end-2025, although loose fiscal policy may be a limiting factor. ING note that the Governor's presser will be closely watched as his communications has recently tended to prelude changes to MPC statements.