US TSYS/SUPPLY: March Issuance Outlook: Steady Overall Sales Size
Feb-27 20:37
From our latest US Treasury Deep Dive: March is set to see $315B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $18B in 10Y TIPS and $28B FRN for a total of $361B – steady compared with February.
- Prevailing opinion is that Treasury's guidance on future increases in coupon auction sizes ("based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters") will be changed in May to give plenty of notice ahead of a shift in issuance in November, though overall the perception is that risks are increasing of a later timeline.
- MNI’s Treasury / Bill issuance calendar is regularly updated at this link
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Late March'25 5Y/10Y Ultra Curve Steepener
Jan-28 20:33
Curve steepener blocked after the bell at 1524:00ET, DV01 $375,000:
- +9,000 FVH5 106-16.75, post time offer vs.
- -4,300 UXYH5 111-18, sell through 111-18.5 post time bid
AUDUSD TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Holds Firm
Jan-28 20:30
- RES 4: 0.6441 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 - Jan 13 downleg
- RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 0.6325/6331 50-day EMA / High Jan 24
- PRICE: 0.6248 @ 16:38 GMT Jan 28
- SUP 1: 0.6209 Low Jan 21
- SUP 3: 0.6165/31 Low Jan 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A medium-term bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and recent gains have stalled at resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6325. The reversal lower suggests the possible end of the correction between Jan 13 - 24. A continuation lower would open 0.6131, the Jan 13 low and the bear trigger. On the upside, a clear breach of the 50-day average is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery.
CANADA: Median Analyst Sees 75bp Of Cuts Left, Starting Tomorrow
Jan-28 20:30
- The BoC is heavily expected to cut its overnight rate target 25bps to 3.00% on Wednesday.
- There's a wide range of terminal rate forecasts for the BoC amongst analysts, from 1.75% to 3.00%.
- The median in the table below sits at 2.5%, firmed up a little further with the addition of Rabobank received since we published our BoC Preview, but there are multiple calls for a terminal at or below the bottom of the BoC's neutral range of 2.25-3.25%.
- Market pricing currently has around 2.6% for a terminal having fallen about 30bps since mid-January.
- See the MNI BoC Preview here.
