THAILAND: Malaysia Seeks To Restart Cambodia Talks After Ceasefire Suspended
The Nation reports that Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim has instructed the Chief of the Defence Forces, Gen. Mohd Nizam Jaffar, to conduct a new round of talks between Thai and Cambodian officials aimed at restoring the joint peace declaration announced at last month's ASEAN conference. This comes after Bangkok suspended the truce after Thai soldiers were injured by landmines in an incident earlier this week. There is uncertainty as to whether the landmines were freshly laid by Cambodian forces. Thai PM Anutin Charnvirakul said to reporters after a meeting of the National Security Council earlier today that the suspension would remain in force until the end of "hostilities", adding, “We will do what we think is right.”
- The Thai gov'ts reaction risks the status of trade talks with the US. Agreeing to the Trump-backed ceasefire was a condition for tariff negotiations to get underway. Initially seen as of crucial importance for Thailand, which faces a 20% 'reciprocal' tariff from the US, it would appear that domestic political considerations have been deemed more critical than ensuring a tariff deal with Washington.
- The Nation: "The original agreement called for joint demining operations and the withdrawal of troops from contested border areas. However, the latest explosion has angered many Thais and sparked debate over whether Cambodia has violated the terms of the accord."
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
