US STOCKS: Making Modest Gains, Autos Underperforming
Jan-02 17:25
- US stocks are making modest gains on the first trading session of 2025 Thursday, inside generally narrow ranges after a couple rounds of profit taking tempered late overnight gains in SPX Eminis. Currently, the DJIA trades up 3.52 points (0.01%) at 42561.63, S&P E-Minis up 1.75 points (0.03%) at 5939, Nasdaq up 44.2 points (0.2%) at 19361.78.
- Energy and Communication Services sectors outperformed in the first half, oil & gas stocks gaining as crude prices surged (WTI +1.80 at 53.52): Texas Pacific Land Corp +5.59%, Devon Energy +2.86%, The Williams Cos +2.83%.
- Interactive media and entertainment stocks supported the Communication Services sector: Meta +2.47%, Charter Communications +1.70% while Fox Corp gained 1.22%.
- On the flipside, Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate sectors underperformed, autos weighing on the discretionary sector, namely Tesla -5.01% after failing to meet delivery expectations, while GM declined 1.88%, Ford -0.66%.
- Meanwhile, estate management shares traded weaker: CoStar Group -0.60, CBRE Group -0.69%.
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ECB: Holzmann Sees Likelihood Of December Rate Cut
Dec-03 17:21
- Bloomberg reports Austria Central Bank Governor Holzmann saying in an interview with Oberoesterreichische Nachrichten that he sees a likelihood for a moderate rate cut in December.
- It’s admittedly nothing hugely new, seeing as he said on Nov 21 that a December cut was the likeliest outcome but not certain as he saw a need for policy to stay restrictive amid price risks, although it’s still coming from one of the ECB’s ardent hawks.
- ECB-dated ESTR OIS shows a 28bp cut priced for Dec 12.
PIPELINE: Corporate Debt Issuance Update
Dec-03 17:15
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 12/03 $600M #Public Service of Oklahoma 10Y+100
- 12/03 $500M #Sammons Financial 5Y +103
- 12/03 $750M Iron Mountain 8NC3
- 12/03 $Benchmark Avolon +3Y SOFR, +5Y SOFR
- 12/03 $Benchmark CVS 30.25NC5.25, 30NC10
- 12/03 $Benchmark RGA Global Funding 7Y +115a
- 12/03 $Benchmark Coterra Energy 10Y +150a, 30Y +180a
- 12/03 $Benchmark Canadian Natural Resources 5Y +120a, 10Y +150a
- 12/03 $Benchmark Tapestry investor calls
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed
Dec-03 17:07
- RES 4: 112-31 High Oct 16 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 111-26 High Oct 22
- RES 2: 111-13 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 111-11 High Dec 03
- PRICE: 111-01+ @ 17:03 GMT Dec 3
- SUP 1: 110-01/109-20 Low Nov 25 / Low Nov 20/21
- SUP 2: 109-02+ Low Nov 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 108-28 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
- SUP 4: 108-12+ 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
A bull cycle in Treasuries remains in play and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA and sights are on the 50-day EMA, at 111-13. This EMA marks the next important resistance, a clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger recovery near-term. For bears, a reversal lower would highlight the end of a corrective cycle and open the bear trigger at 109-02+, the Nov 15 low.
