The launching of a massive Russian aerial assault on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, overnight on 13-14 Nov comes amid continued slow but steady advances for Moscow's forces in the Donbas, but also as the European Union pushes for the effective confiscation of frozen Russian assets held in the Union to fund Ukraine's defensive efforts. According to local reports, 11 were injured in the attacks that struck every district of the capital.
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OI data points to a mix of net short cover and long setting as Tsy futures rallied on Tuesday.
| 14-Oct-25 | 13-Oct-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,589,469 | 4,613,433 | -23,964 | -934,901 |
FV | 6,693,393 | 6,718,630 | -25,237 | -1,104,588 |
TY | 5,410,066 | 5,395,260 | +14,806 | +1,006,011 |
UXY | 2,466,290 | 2,452,629 | +13,661 | +1,244,858 |
US | 1,880,889 | 1,924,764 | -43,875 | -5,694,897 |
WN | 2,065,293 | 2,059,001 | +6,292 | +1,203,809 |
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| Total | -58,317 | -4,279,708 |
Treasuries are holding on to this week’s gains and a bullish theme remains intact. Last Friday’s climb resulted in a break of the 113-00 handle, signalling scope for stronger rally towards 113-29, the Sep 11 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the M/T uptrend. Support at the 50-day EMA at 112-16 remains intact for now. A clear break of the average would expose 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and a key support.