EQUITIES: Major Indices Set To Close Flat After Recovering Post-PPI Drop
Major equity indices were set to record a flat session Thursday, following fresh closing records in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 Wednesday. Early gains were fully reversed after above-expected US PPI data, but stocks clawed back over the course of the rest of the session.
- In contrast with strong sectoral breadth Wednesday, today's session saw most S&P 500 sectors in the red.
- That was led by materials which had outperformed Wednesday but were lagging Thursday (-0.9%), with industrials neck-and-neck (-0.9%); consumer discretionary and communication services stocks led gains (up 0.5% apiece).
- Top performers had no particular theme: top was Texas Pacific Land (+4.1%), followed by drugmaker Eli Lilly (+3.5%) and Amazon (3.3%). Down double-digits were Tapestry (-14%, with tariff impact cited) and Amcor (-11%, missed Q4 earning estimates), though among larger market cap companies, Deere and Co's 6.5% drop stood out (cited cautious farmer consumers in paring its full-year earnings outlook).
- Latest futures levels: Dow Jones mini down 27 pts or -0.06% at 44994, S&P 500 mini up 0.75 pts or +0.01% at 6489, NASDAQ mini down 19 pts or -0.08% at 23926.
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US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Better Puts Post-CPI, Sites on PPI
SOFR & Treasury options saw better put volume Tuesday, outright and spd, as underlying futures rejected the initial post-CPI rally. Focus turns to Wednesday's June PPI data. Curves hold flatter profiles/well off lows, 2s10s -0.067 at 53.072, projected rate cut pricing continues to soften vs morning/pre-data (*) levels: Jul'25 steady at -0.6bp, Sep'25 at -14.1bp (-15.7bp), Oct'25 at -27.1bp (-29.4bp), Dec'25 at -43.7bp (-46.7bp).
- SOFR Options
- Block/pit, -11,500 SFRU5 95.25/95.75 put spds, 3.5 ref 95.815
- Block, 5,000 SFRU5 95.68/95.81 2x1 put spds, 4.25
- Block, -10,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.50/96.75/97.00 call condors, 4.0 net ref 96.125
- 1,250 SFRZ5 95.75/95.87/96.25/96.37 call condors
- Block, +20,000 SFRU5 95.62 puts, cab
- -16,000 SFRH6 96.00/96.50 put spds 23.75 vs. 96.385/0.30%
- 10,250 SFRU5 95.81 puts, ref 95.84
- +2,000 SFRU5 95.87/96.00/96.06/96.18 call condors, 2.75
- 2,000 SFRU5 95.56/95.68 2x1 put spds ref 95.85
- +2,500 SFRU5 95.25/95.75 put spds, 3.5
- +5,000 SFRZ5 95.75/95.87/96.00 put trees, 2
- 4,000 SFRQ5 95.75/95.81 put spds
- Block/screen +14,100 SFRU5 95.62/95.75/95.81/95.87 broken put condors, 0.5
- +2,500 SFRU5 96.12/96.37 call spds, 1.25
- Treasury Options:
- 13,200 TYV5 108.5 puts, 32 ref 110-08
- Block, 10,000 TYV5 108/TYX5 107.5 put strip, 54 vs. 110-10/0.20%
- +10,000 TYV5 113/115 call spds 12
- Block - adds to below w/ another 18,600 USU5 108 puts, 34-35 with 13,400 at 32 on screen
- Block, total 22,500 USU5 108 puts, 28-29 vs. 112-09/0.16%
- 6,500 TYQ5/wk3 TY 110 put spds, 4
- 5,000 TYQ5 112 calls, 4
- 2,000 TUQ5 103.25/103.37/103.62/103.75 put condors ref 103-20.38
- -10,000 TYU5 109.5/112 strangles, 38
- -2,500 wk3 TY 111.25 calls, 6 vs. 110-24.5/0.25%
- -2,000 FVQ5 107.75/108 put spds, 6
- +3,500 TYQ5 109.75 puts, 5 vs. 110-25/0.08%
- 2,000 TYQ5 111.5 calls, 9 vs. 110-24.5/0.21%
- -1,000 FVU5 108 straddles, 104.5 vs. 108-04/0.10%
- +20,000 FVQ5 107.75 puts, 7.5
- +4,000 Wednesday wkly TY 111.5/111.75 call spds, 1 ref 110-23.5 to -24.5
- +10,000 TYQ5 112 calls, 4
US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: Oct'25/Nov'25 10Y Put Strip
- +10,000 TYV5 108 put w/ TYX5 107.5 puts, 54 total db vs. 110-10/0.20% at 1446:58ET
EURJPY TECHS: Continues To Appreciate
- RES 4: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 3: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: 173.43 High Jul 12 ‘24
- RES 1: 173.08 High Jul 15
- PRICE: 172.89 @ 16:42 BST Jul 15
- SUP 1: 170.81 Low Jul 11
- SUP 2: 169.75 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1
- SUP 4: 167.09 50-day EMA
The trend condition in EURJPY is unchanged, a bull cycle is in play and today’s climb reinforces current conditions. Fresh cycle highs confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 173.43, the Jul 12 ‘24 high. Support to watch lies at 169.75, the 20-day EMA.
