GBPUSD TECHS: Maintains A Firmer Tone
- RES 4: 1.2800 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.2772 High Apr 26
- RES 2: 1.2751 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.2638 High May 4 and a key resistance
- PRICE: 1.2540 @ 06:20 BST May 25
- SUP 1: 1.2438 Low May 20
- SUP 2: 1.2317/2156 Low May 17 / Low May 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.2081 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jun ‘21 uptrend
- SUP 4: 1.2000 psychological round number
GBPUSD maintains a firmer tone and Monday traded above last week’s high of 1.2525 and the 20-day EMA at 1.2503. The clear break of this average signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery and opens 1.2638, the May 4 high and a key resistance. On the downside key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 1.2156, the May 13 low. Initial firm support lies at 1.2317, the May 17 low.
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EUROZONE: Timeline of key events (Times BST)
| Event | Time | Country | Event |
| 25-Apr | 0800 | ES | PPI |
| 25-Apr | 0800 | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 25-Apr | 1400 | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
| 25-Apr | 1800 | EU | ECB Panetta Speech at Columbia University |
| 27-Apr | 0700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 27-Apr | 0745 | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 28-Apr | 0800 | ES | HICP (p) |
| 28-Apr | 0800 | EU | ECB de Guindos Presents Annual Report 2021 |
| 28-Apr | 0900 | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 28-Apr | 0900 | EU | ECB publishes May economic bulletin |
| 28-Apr | 0900 | IT | ISTAT Consumer / Business Confidence |
| 28-Apr | 1000 | DE | Saxony CPI |
| 28-Apr | 1000 | EU | Economic / Consumer / Industrial Sentiment Indicator |
| 28-Apr | 1300 | DE | HICP (p) |
EURUSD TECHS: Bear Trigger Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.1076 High Apr 1
- RES 2: 1.1009 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0887/0936 20-day EMA / High Apr 21
- PRICE: 1.0775 @ 06:10 BST Apr 25
- SUP 1: 1.0758 Low Apr 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020 and bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.0659 0.764 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0636 Low March 23 2020
EURUSD remains vulnerable. The pair failed to hold on to last week’s gains. A resumption of strength and a break of 1.0936 is required to signal scope for a continuation higher, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.1009. Recent short-term gains are still considered corrective and the 50-day EMA represents the next key resistance point. The bear trigger is at 1.0758, the Apr 14 low, where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
BTP TECHS: (M2) Bearish Extension
- RES 4: 139.23 High Mar 23
- RES 3: 138.68 High Mar 31 and key resistance
- RES 2: 137.74 High Apr 5
- RES 1: 135.14 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 131.45 @ Close Apr 22
- SUP 1: 131.30 Low Apr 22
- SUP 2: 131.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 130.24 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
- SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number
BTP futures traded lower Friday. Fresh cycle lows have again confirmed a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. Moving averages remain in a bear mode too. The focus is on the 130.00 handle next. Firm trend resistance is unchanged at 138.68, the Mar 31 high. The 20-day EMA, at 135.14, marks initial resistance.
