US: Macro Week Ahead: A Quieter Data Week Headlined By Flash PMIs
From our US Macro Weekly (here):
- It’s a quiet economic calendar next week, headlined by flash PMIs, durable goods orders, home sales and a latest weekly update for jobless claims.
- With the start of the FOMC blackout, Fed Chair Powell’s welcome remarks on Tuesday won’t touch on monetary policy.
| Date | ET | Impact | Event |
| 22 Jul | 0830 | ** | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 22 Jul | 0830 | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | |
| 22 Jul | 0855 | ** | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 22 Jul | 1000 | ** | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 22 Jul | 1300 | Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman | |
| 23 Jul | 0700 | ** | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 23 Jul | 1000 | *** | NAR existing home sales |
| 23 Jul | 1300 | ** | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 24 Jul | 0830 | *** | Jobless Claims |
| 24 Jul | 0945 | *** | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) |
| 24 Jul | 0945 | *** | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 24 Jul | 1000 | *** | New Home Sales |
| 24 Jul | 1100 | ** | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 24 Jul | 1300 | ** | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note |
| 25 Jul | 0830 | ** | Durable Goods New Orders |
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US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Back to Geopol Risk Watching, Eqs Pare Gains
- Stocks reversed moderate session support after the Federal Reserve held rates steady, continuing to express patience in changing rates amid ongoing tariff related pass-through inflation.
- "We'll make smarter and better decision if we wait to get a sense of the pass-through of inflation and the effects on spending, and hiring, and all those things," Chairman Powell said. Back to watching geopolitical headlines regarding Iran/Israel war.
- Currently, the DJIA trades down 17.77 points (-0.04%) at 42197.95, S&P E-Minis up 5 points (0.08%) at 6043.75, Nasdaq up 56 points (0.3%) at 19576.7.
- Gainers led by Coinbase Global climbing 15.74% after a Stablecoin bill cleared the Senate. Other leaders included TKO Group Holdings +5.41%, Caesars Entertainment +4.31%, Jabil +4.27%, Nucor +4.17% and Super Micro Computer +3.41%.
- Conversely, financial services led laggers in the second half: Mastercard -5.29%, Visa -4.48%, Paycom Software -3.63%, PayPal Holdings -3.47% and Corpay -3.06%.
US: Latest Trump Comments On Iran - Hasn't Made Decision Yet
Bloomberg headlines from Trump's Oval Office remarks on Iran:
"*TRUMP: I HAVEN'T MADE A DECISION WITH RESPECT TO IRAN
*TRUMP: HAVEN'T CLOSED DOOR TO CONVERSATIONS WITH IRAN
*TRUMP: POSSIBLE THAT FIGHTING NECESSARY TO BLOCK IRAN NUCLEAR
*TRUMP: JUST BECAUSE US CAN DESTROY FORDOW DOESN'T MEAN WE WILL
*TRUMP: I THINK IRAN WAS FEW WEEKS AWAY FROM A NUCLEAR WEAPON
*TRUMP: WE'RE LOOKING FOR TOTAL VICTORY, NO NUCLEAR WEAPON
*TRUMP: ENDING MIDEAST CONFLICT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE IS GOAL
*TRUMP, ASKED ABOUT LATEST ON ISRAEL: HAVING A MEETING IN HOUR" - bbg
AUDUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6552 High June 16
- PRICE: 0.6519 @ 15:54 BST Jun 18
- SUP 1: 0.6457/6429 Low Jun 13 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
- SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Key support at 0.6429, the 50-day EMA, is intact. A clear break of this EMA is required to highlight a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.
