TTF NATGAS TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points South

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• President Donald Trump will host El Salvador President Nayib Bukele at the White House today for a bilateral meeting and lunch. Trump will sit down this week with the Spanish-language "Fox Noticias" program for his first post-‘Liberation Day’ interview.
• This week will again be dominated by Trump’s ambiguous trade policies. On Friday, Trump appeared to exempt some consumer electronics from all tariffs, including products from China, barring the 20% Fentanyl tariff. Yesterday, he indicated that reprieve could be short-lived.
• China has suspended exports of some rare earth minerals - crucial for the world’s car, semiconductor and aerospace industries - in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs.
• Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told parliament today that Japan won’t rush into striking a compromise deal with the Trump administration.
• Spanish Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo is set to meet Treasury Secretary Bessent tomorrow amid signs Madrid is inclined to push for closer EU-China relations.
• President Trump signalled that he is likely to give Moscow more time to hammer out a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, despite an attack on Sumy that drew widespread international condemnation.
• US and Iranian delegations are expected to meet for a second round of nuclear talks in Rome on Saturday following a satisfactory first meeting in Oman on April 12.
• Poll of the Day: Americans are increasingly downbeat about the future of the US economy.

Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF

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(MNI) London – All timings are subject to change.

Monday 14 April:

• US-EU: European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maroš Šefčovič travels to Washington, D.C., for talks with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. These will be the first in-person talks between the two sides since US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs that were set to hit the EU with a 20% levy. There remains uncertainty as to the US’ willingness to negotiate, as well as how united the EU will be in either seeking a deal with the US or risking escalation through its own retaliatory action. 

• The Euro has moderately underperformed G10 peers to start the week, and despite EURUSD rallying back above 1.14 earlier today, spot has gravitated back towards 1.1360 at typing and remains comfortably off the 1.1473 cycle highs. As a reminder, price action last week saw EURUSD substantially narrow the gap to 1.1495, the Feb 10 2022 high and a key medium term technical point.
• Should the volatile price action continue, 1.1608 (Nov 9 2021 high) is a notable level on the topside, whereas initial support is not seen until the prior breakout level at 1.1144.
• JP Morgan noted that last week’s retraction in reciprocal tariff rates may have marked the peak in tariff war unpredictability and vol, but overlaid against the massive ratchet higher against China, suggests that such relief may be shallow or incomplete.
• The bank adds that while EM FX can stay under pressure, the case for EUR is reasonably intact, helped in part by the postponement of its 20% reciprocal rate, which can allow the themes of fresh fiscal support and regional self-sufficiency to bullishly support the single currency. Consistent with this, EUR has been the most-bought currency on JPM’s high-frequency flow metrics over the last two weeks.
• The ECB is almost unanimously expected to deliver a sixth consecutive 25bp cut on Thursday. MNI’s full preview of the meeting will be published tomorrow.