The trend needle in Treasury futures continues to point north and the recent shallow pullback appears corrective. A bull theme is reinforced by MA studies that are in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Recent gains have resulted in a print above 111-22+, the Dec 3 ‘24 high. A clear breach of this level would open 112-02 and 112-13, Fibonacci projections. Firm support is at 110-00, the Feb 7 high.
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Supply-related pressure across wider core global FI markets and spillover from a rally in European equities weighed on gilts at the open, with fresh selling seen in recent trade.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Mar-25 | 4.407 | -4.7 |
May-25 | 4.211 | -24.3 |
Jun-25 | 4.134 | -32.0 |
Aug-25 | 3.989 | -46.5 |
Sep-25 | 3.953 | -50.1 |
Nov-25 | 3.883 | -57.2 |
Dec-25 | 3.869 | -58.5 |
Italian December industrial production was weaker than expected falling 3.1% M/M swda (vs -0.2% consensus), after rising 0.3% in November. On a 3m/3m basis, industrial production deteriorated further to -1.1% from -0.7% in November.
EURIBOR FIX - EMMI/Bloomberg.