WTI TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: $75.51 - High Jan 15 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $72.56 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $66.41/71.76 - High Apr 4 / 2 and key resistance
- RES 1: $63.54/90 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $61.58 @ 07:15 BST May 15
- SUP 1: $54.67 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $53.72 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $52.54 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number
A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Key resistance to watch is $63.54, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open $66.41, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
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BUNDS: The contract has extended gains Overnight
- Bund has edged just above the next resistance of 131.42 overnight, this was last Friday's high, managed a 131.57 high so far Today.
- Next upside resistance is at the April high of 132.03.
- The contract has benefitted from Safer Haven flow, combined with some positioning ahead of the ECB expected cut on Thursday and Growth risks given the Tariffs uncertainties.
- President Trump has floated the idea of temporary exemption on Imported Vehicles and parts last night, but this Morning CNBC reported that the US announced a probe into Chips and Electronics Imports paving the way for new Tariffs.
- Nonetheless, Yesterday's news on Cars has helped the US Yield fade away from Friday's peaks, around ~4.58% in the 10yr.
- The UK data is out of the way and had very limited impact, focus remains squarely on Tariff news.
- The rest of Today sees, France final CPI, German ZEW and for North America, Canadian CPI.
- ECB Bank lending survey is also released.
- SUPPLY: Uk £4bn 10yr (equates to 34.56k Gilt) should weigh, Germany €4.5bn Bobl (equates to 38.3k Bobl) Could weigh, Finland 2031, 2055 (won't impact Bund).
GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $3347.7 - 1.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3300.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $3291.8 - 1.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: $3245.8 - High Apr 14
- PRICE: $3226.6 @ 07:24 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: $3077.5 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2956.7/2981.2 - Low Apr 7 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2880.3 - Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28
The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and price is trading at its recent highs. The yellow metal last week traded through $3167.8, the Apr 3 high, to resume the primary uptrend and trade to fresh all-time highs. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 3077.5, the 20-day EMA. Sights are on 3291.8, a Fibonacci projection
BRENT TECHS: (M5) Trend Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $77.75 - High Jan 20
- RES 3: $76.26 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $70.59/75.47 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $67.95 - Low Mar 5
- PRICE: $65.04 @ 07:11 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: $58.40 - Low Apr 9
- SUP 2: $58.85 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $56.89 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $55.00 - Round number support
Brent futures continue to trade above last week’s high. For now, the latest bounce is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would open $56.89, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is seen at $67.95, the Mar 5 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at $70.83.
