GILTS: Lower Alongside Peers

• RES 4: 186.87 High Jan 23 and a key M/T resistance  
• RES 3: 186.36 High Feb 9
• RES 2: 185.05 76.4% retracement of the Feb 9 - 12 bear leg
• RES 1: 184.77 High Feb 25 and a short-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 183.88 @ 07:34 GMT Mar 11
• SUP 1: 182.90/03 Bull channel from Feb 28 ‘25 low / Low Mar 03
• SUP 2: 180.81 Low Feb 12 
• SUP 3: 180.10 Low Dec 5 ‘25
• SUP 4: 179.30 23.6% of the Feb 28 ‘25 - Jan 23 bull cycle 

EURJPY is recovering from its most recent lows. Key support at 182.90, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low, remains intact. A clear channel breakout is required to signal a stronger reversal and would open another key support at 181.81, the Feb 12 low. For bulls, initial resistance to monitor is unchanged at 184.77, the Feb 25 high. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight the resumption of a fresh bull wave inside the channel.

• RES 4: 6983.75 High Feb 25     
• RES 3: 6894.74 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 6872.49 20-day EMAl
• RES 1: 6833.50 Intraday high      
• PRICE: 6803.50 @ 07:21 GMT Mar 11
• SUP 1: 6714.75 Low Mar 6   
• SUP 2: 6583.00 Low Nov 21 ‘25 and a key medium-term support 
• SUP 3: 6534.52 1.382 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 3 - 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 6503.25 1.500 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 3 - 5 price swing 

A sharp bounce in S&P E-Minis on Monday appears corrective - for now - and this has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. The recent breach of 6751.50, the Feb 6 low, confirms a range breakout and highlights a stronger short-term bear threat. A resumption of weakness would open 6583.00, the Nov 21 ‘25 low and a key medium-term support. Initial firm resistance is 6890.53, the 50-day EMA.

CBA now expect the RBA to hike rates in both March and May.

• They write “the March Board meeting is being set in a very different context to what was expected just two weeks ago. The war in the Middle East has set an uncertain backdrop to the meeting. Inflation will lift further away from target from here as energy and other linked goods prices rise, but the impact on growth remains highly uncertain. Inflation is already too high, the economy is already breaching its capacity limit and the labour market is tight. The domestic data flow since the February meeting has confirmed that higher interest rates are needed”.
• “There are good reasons the RBA could decide to wait till May and we still consider it a line ball decision. Recent commentary from the RBA has confirmed the hawkish stance and focus on inflation”.