JGBS: Long End Sells Off As BoJ's Noguchi Plays Down Need For Intervention

• RES 4: 5270.00 High Apr 1  
• RES 3: 5113.20 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 5001.00 High Apr 9
• RES 1: 49.78.63 20-day EMA              
• PRICE: 4843.00 @ 07:04 BST Apr 22 
• SUP 1: 4664.00 Low Apr 10                      
• SUP 2: 4575.45 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 9 bounce
• SUP 3: 4444.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger         
• SUP 4: 4336.00 Low Nov 28 ‘23 (cont)     

Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above their recent lows. The latest bounce highlights a corrective cycle and this is allowing an unwinding of the recent oversold trend condition. Resistance levels to watch are 4978.63, the 20-day EMA, and 5113.20, the 50-day EMA. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4444.00, the Apr 7 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

• RES 4: $77.75 - High Jan 20  
• RES 3: $76.26 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $69.95/75.47 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $68.14 - High Apr 17            
• PRICE: $66.67 @ 07:06 BST Apr 22  
• SUP 1: $62.00/58.40 - Low Apr 10 / 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $58.85 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $56.89 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $55.00 - Round number support

Brent futures continue to trade above the Apr 9 low and maintain a firmer short-term tone. For now, the latest bounce is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend direction remains down and a resumption of weakness would open $56.89, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is seen at $68.14, the Apr 17 high. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at $69.95.

Overall, the LFS and PES (released last week) data suggests the Swedish labour market has passed its weakest point, and should start to strengthen alongside the broader economy through the rest of 2025 - assuming past (and potentially future) rate cuts and increased fiscal spending can offset some of the negative direct and indirect impact of US tariffs. 

• The Swedish monthly LFS survey is a volatile release, meaning more emphasis should be placed on trends (e.g. 3mma’s) rather than single-month figures.  
• In March, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell 8 tenths to 8.1%, the largest one-month fall since July 2023. The three analyst estimates submitted to BBG were 8.5%, 8.7% and 9.2%.  In Q1, the unemployment rate averaged 8.9%, below the Riksbank’s 9.1% March MPR forecast, and still heavily impacted by January’s lurch higher to 9.6%.
• The size of the labour force was essentially flat in March, meaning the fall in unemployment was mostly attributed to a rise in employed persons.
• 3m/3m employment growth was 0.4% (vs 0.3% in February), the highest rate since August 2024. The 3mma employment rate ended Q1 at 68.9%, above the Riksbank’s 68.7% projection.