STIR: Little Change Since RBA Decision But Much Firmer Than Late-Oct
Nov-06 03:13
RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed since this week’s RBA Policy Decision.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is showing a 25bp rate cut in December at a 10% probability, with a cumulative 18bps of easing priced by mid-2026.
- Notably, current pricing leaves levels some 22-26bps firmer than pre-Q3 CPI levels in late October.
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Current Vs. Pre-CPI
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
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JGBS AUCTION: 30Y Supply Faces Higher Yield But Similar Curve
Oct-07 03:11
The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) will today sell Y700bn of 30-Year JGBs. The MoF last sold 30-year debt on 4 September 2025.
- This month’s 30-year JGB auction features an outright yield at a new cycle high of 3.351%, approximately 10bps higher than last month’s issuance.
- The 10s30s yield curve is around the same level as the previous auction and sits at its cycle peak at 165bps.
- On a relative value basis, the 30-year bond is around the same valuation to last month, based on the 20-/30-/40-year butterfly spread. Nevertheless, the 30-year is still holding the dramatic cheapening seen in May. It sits at its most discounted level in over 20 years.
- Investor sentiment toward longer-dated global bonds remains uncertain.
- Against this backdrop, today’s 30-year auction will serve as a real test of investor appetite. Ultra-long maturities remain a soft spot in the market, and their performance will be key in determining whether recent volatility continues.
- Results are due at 0435 BST / 1235 JT.
JGBS AUCTION: Poll: 30-Year JGB Auction
Oct-07 03:07
Japan’s 30-Year Bond Auction May Have 99.15 Cut-off Price: Poll- BLOOMBERG
JGBS AUCTION: PREVIEW - 30-Year JGB Auction Due
Oct-07 03:00
The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) will today sell Y700bn of 30-Year JGBs. The MoF last sold 30-year debt on 4 September 2025. The auction drew cover of 3.3080x at an average yield of 3.264%, an average price of 92.98, a high yield of 3.277%, and a low price of 92.80, with 5.2264% of bids allotted at the high yield.
- Last month’s 30-year bond auction delivered mixed results. The low price matched dealer expectations of 92.80, per the Bloomberg survey. However, the cover ratio fell to 3.31x from 3.43x.and the auction tail lengthened to 0.18 from 0.15, indicating a softening in bidding strength.
- This month’s 10-year JGB auction delivered weak results, with the low price failing to meet expectations at 100.49, according to the Bloomberg dealer poll. Moreover, the cover ratio decreased to 3.3356x from 3.9156x, and the tail lengthened to 0.19 from 0.06.
- Results are due at 0435 BST / 1235 JT.
