GILTS: Little Change In Positioning In Futures On Tuesday, Still Feels Short S/T

The grind higher in US Treasury yields at the NY crossover is adding extra weight to GBP/USD, which has been ebbing lower slowly, but surely, over the European morning. The revision lower for Q3 GDP (down to flat for Q3) won't be helping, but the decline has been largely USD-led.

• The fade in the pair is still well clear of the Friday low, however prices are now back below the 1.2533 support - the 23.6% retracement for the post-Fed slip lower in the pair. Support seen more significant into 1.2476.
• EUR/GBP gains have put the cross back above the 0.83 handle. The overnight high at 0.8315 is just a few pips shy of the 0.8319 50-dma, which marks first resistance having been tested and containing prices on three occasions over the past week or so.
• US data is the sole event risk today - while building permits are unlikely to shake prices, prelim durable goods data for November could prove consequential, as well as the consumer confidence print for December.

Treasury futures just extended overnight lows, no obvious headline driver or block trade so far as Mar'25 10Y futures slip to 108-26 (-5), still above initial technical support at 108-16.5 (Low Dec 19). Curves inch steeper with 2s10s marking 21.963 high (+1.191).

US President-elect Trump has announced another round of executive nominations, including Stephen Miran to chair the Council of Economic Advisers – a three-member panel that advises the president on economic policy.

• Trump wrote on Truth Social: "Steve will work with the rest of my Economic Team to deliver a Great Economic Boom that lifts up all Americans".
• Bloomberg notes: “Miran, a fellow at the New York-based Manhattan Institute, co-authored a paper with economist Nouriel Roubini in July that alleged the Treasury Department had manipulated the issuance of US securities in a way that lowers real borrowing costs across the economy,” an allegation rejected by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
• Axios notes, “Miran has been critical of Fed chairman Jerome Powell as well, saying he was "wrong politically and economically" to recommend a major stimulus package in late 2020.”
• Semafor notes, “Miran has endorsed Trump’s early tariff threats as a negotiating tactic and pushed back on predictions they would cause inflation.”
• Miran said in a statement on X he looks forward “to working to help implement the President’s policy agenda to create a booming, noninflationary economy that brings prosperity to all Americans.”
• Miran's appointment will require confirmation from the Senate.