Treasury futures holding near recent session highs after June FOMC minutes released - relating risk of persistent tariff-related inflation pass through.
Currently, Sep'25 10Y trades +13 at 111-06 (110-23.5L / 111-07.5H), resistance to watch is at 111-28, the Jul 3 high.
Curves mixed: 2s10s -2.470 at 47.984; 5s30s +0.465 at 95.648.
USD mildly higher, Bbg index BBDXY +0.47 at 1197.11 vs. 1195.65 high.
FED: Instant Answers: Well Positioned To Wait For More Clarity - Minutes
Jul-09 18:00
Did any participant mention a potential scenario where rates would need to rise from current levels? NO. "Regarding upside risks to inflation, participants noted that, if the imposition of tariffs were to generate a larger-than-expected increase in inflation, if such an increase in inflation were to be more persistent than anticipated, or if a notable increase in medium- or longer-term inflation expectations were to occur, then it would be appropriate to maintain a more restrictive stance of monetary policy than would otherwise be the case, especially if labor market conditions and economic activity remained solid."
Did staff or participants discuss the idea of lowering the ON RRP rate relative to the fed funds rate? NO
Did any participant mention changing the IORB rate independently of changes to the fed funds rate? NO
MNI: FED MINUTES: WELL POSITIONED TO WAIT FOR CLARITY
Jul-09 18:00
MNI: FED MINUTES: WELL POSITIONED TO WAIT FOR CLARITY
FED: MOST OFFICIALS SEE 'SOME REDUCTION' IN RATES BY DEC
FED: TARIFF INFLATION BOOST MAY BE TEMPORARY, MODEST
FED: 'A COUPLE' OFFICIALS COULD SEE CUT AS SOON AS JULY
FED: COULD MAINTAIN MORE RESTRICTIVE POLICY IF NEEDED
FED: TO DISCUSS SEP, SCENARIOS AFTER FRAMEWORK REVIEW