FOREX: Leveraged Contracts Mostly Move Against USD To Jan 6 - Per CFTC
Last week's CFTC FX positioning update for the week ending Jan 6 (last Tuesday) is outlined in the table below. USD/JPY will remain a focus point, particularly amid fresh speculation from late last week that PM Takaichi could call an early election (for February this year). The pair is above 158.00 in early Monday dealings, with upside focus likely to rest at 160.00 to test the authorities resolve. Speculative positioning, in terms of leveraged contracts remain skewed short, but this was pared back to Jan 6. In the past decade or so, short positioning extremes rest around -100k or slightly wider for this segment. We are currently -68.1k. On the asset manager side, longs remain but we are comfortably off late 2025 highs in this space (+87.5k).
- Elsewhere EUR/USD positioning saw leveraged players cut back longs modestly, while asset managers added to longs. EUR/USD has struggled for fresh upside in the early parts of 2026, with USD indices tracking higher. Market expectations for a near term Fed cut are low.
- AUD/USD saw little net change in positioning, with leveraged contracts still comfortably long, but largely offset by an asset manager net short. Near term 2026 hike expectations from the RBA were tempered last week post the Nov CPI and remarks from the RBA's Hauser.
- It was a similar backdrop for NZD/USD last week in terms of relative positioning shifts.
Table 1: CFTC Positioning Up For Major Currencies - Weekly Changes & Outright Levels
| Leveraged Contracts | Asset manager Contracts | |||
| Weekly Change | Outright Position | Weekly Change | Outright Position | |
| JPY | 11148 | -68117 | -6966 | 47852 |
| EUR | -2226 | 22279 | 7941 | 424424 |
| GBP | 5665 | 33949 | -1847 | -80347 |
| AUD | 1510 | 33775 | 1237 | -31901 |
| NZD | 3875 | -10605 | -2668 | -40649 |
| CAD | 3283 | -56489 | -2788 | 9985 |
| CHF | 3497 | -1590 | -706 | -49891 |
| MXN | 5062 | 63497 | -1750 | 78709 |
Source: CFTC/Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
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JGB TECHS: (H6) Just Off Cycle Lows
- RES 3: 140.08 - High Jun 13
- RES 2: 139.05 - High Aug 4
- RES 1: 137.30 - High Sep 8 and key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 133.44 @ 15:44 GMT Dec 12
- SUP 1: 133.25 - Low Dec 10
- SUP 2: 132.78 - 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 3: 132.17 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Prices traded to new pullback and cycle lows earlier this week, weighed by building expectations of a December BoJ rate hike and a breach of support in futures prices. This affirms the firm downtrend that’s dominated prices since mid-September, and prices will need to challenge resistance before signaling any broader reversal.
FED: Reserves Fell To "Ample" At Just Under $3T (2/2)
The FOMC's decision this week to immediately initiate reserve management purchases (RMPs) suggests some concern by policymakers over recent funding market issues and potential further volatility at year-end, while also having an eye on building reserve capacity ahead of the major tax date in April.
- The December FOMC statement noted "reserve balances have declined to ample levels" vs abundant previously, and RMPs will be conducted "to maintain an ample supply of reserves on an ongoing basis."
- As of the meeting, reserves stood at just under $3T ($2.97T), perhaps on the high side of most estimates of where the "ample" range had been. Gov Waller estimated in July that "ample" could be closer to $2.7T.
- The $40B / month pace of RMPs is front-loaded and will taper off, with the reserve rebuild set to average about $20-25B/month. (Powell said Wednesday: "We have to keep reserves, call it, constant as a -- as it relates to the banking system or to the whole economy. And that alone calls for us to increase about $20-25 billion per month...It's also happening in the context of a temporary few month front loading to get reserves high enough to get through the -- you know, the tax period in mid-April."
- The NY Fed's guidance: "The Desk anticipates that the pace of RMPs will remain elevated for a few months to offset expected large increases in non-reserve liabilities in April. After that, the pace of total purchases will likely be significantly reduced in line with expected seasonal patterns in Federal Reserve liabilities. Purchase amounts will be adjusted as appropriate based on the outlook for reserve supply and market conditions."
FED: Trump Tells WSJ: Leaning To Warsh Or Hassett As Fed Chair
President Trump has told the Wall Street Journal in an interview Friday that he was leaning toward either Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett as his pick for the next Fed Chair.
- Warsh's probability of becoming Fed chair is spiking (40%, up 25pp on Kalshi in the last few minutes) on prediction markets with the interview suggesting the ex-Fed governor is neck-and-neck with previously presumptive favorite Hassett (57%).
- "In an interview with The Wall Street Journal in the Oval Office on Friday, the president said Warsh was at the top of his list. "Yes, I think he is. I think you have Kevin and Kevin. They're both -- I think the two Kevins are great," he said. "I think there are a couple of other people that are great.""
- Additionally Trump tells the WSJ that the next Fed Chair should consult with him on where to set interest rates, and that he pressed Warsh this week on "whether he could trust him to support interest-rate cuts if he were chosen to lead the central bank, according to people familiar with the meeting. Trump, in the Journal interview, confirmed that reporting. "He thinks you have to lower interest rates," Trump said of Warsh. "And so does everybody else that I've talked to." "
- "Asked where he wants interest rates to be a year from now, Trump said, "1% and maybe lower than that." "
- This is not entirely new rhetoric from Trump on rates and the associated litmus test of a low rate preference for the next Fed Chair - as such there's not much market reaction to the news, but the reporting suggests that current Fed officials Waller and Bowman may be out of the running.
