LATAM FX: Less Volatile Session For Regional Currencies As USD Weakness Halted

Mar-31 15:58
  • The greenback looks set to pause its decline after the USD index fell around 1.3% in the previous two trading days. Mixed performance among LatAm FX with MXN declining in line with dollar strength and CLP, PEN and COP edging out marginal gains. BRL leads the way, rising 0.6% and reversing yesterday's marginal losses.
  • BanRep decision due later in the session at 1900BST/1400ET.
  • Latest Headline: Brazil’s PSDB Party Asserts Doria’s Pre-candidacy For President (BBG)
  • Below gives key levels of LatAm markets in current trade:
    • USDMXN up 0.24% at 19.926
    • USDBRL down 0.6% at 4.7431
    • USDCLP down 0.24% at 787.15
    • USDCOP down 0.13% at 3753.23
    • USDPEN down 0.38% at 3.701
    • BBG Dollar Index up 0.12% at 1189.6
    • S&P E-Mini Future down 10 points (-0.22%) at 4585.5
    • WTI Crude Oil (front-month) down $4.37 (-4.05%) at $103.38
    • Gold is up $12.12 (0.63%) at $1944.82
    • Copper Futures down 1.25 (-0.26%) at 473.85

Historical bullets

STIR: BLOCK: March SOFR Futures

Mar-01 15:46
  • -10,000 SFRH2 99.5475, sell through 99.5575 post-time bid at 1035:42ET

BONDS: EGBs and Bund- Huge rallies

Mar-01 15:31
  • A massive fast market session for EGBs and Bund, with some large trading ranges across peripherals and core Bonds.
  • All of the action has been in Govies and Rate markets across multi assets, today.
  • BTP is back at session high following the "ECB Shouldn’t Exit Stimulus Before Gauging War Impact, Rehn said ".
  • Next yield support for BTP is at 1.386%, and reference 145.23, this would equate today to 145.68.
  • Peripherals are outperforming, and spread are all tighter versus the German 10yr.Italy is in the lead, given the massive rally in BTP, now 12.4bps tighter.
  • Porugal and Spain are 7bps and 5.6bps tighter respectively.
  • Looking ahead, BoE Saunders, Mann, Fed Bostic and Mester.
  • But most investors awaits on Fed Powell's testimony tomorrow..
  • Note that the text is set to be released tonight sometimes after the US close, but no set time has been confirmed.
  • Gilt futures are up 1.97 today at 123.37 with 10y yields down -21.7bp at 1.191% and 2y yields down -18.5bp at 0.845%.
  • Bund futures are up 3.17 today at 170.21 with 10y Bund yields down -17.4bp at -0.42% and Schatz yields down -16.7bp at -0.706%.
  • BTP futures are up 4.24 today at 145.39 with 10y yields down -30.0bp at 1.405% and 2y yields down -23.8bp at -0.264%.
  • OAT futures are up 3.49 today at 161.77 with 10y yields down -21.4bp at 0.390% and 2y yields down -17.2bp at -0.635%.

DATA REACT: US ISM Improves But Supply Issues Remain

Mar-01 15:30
  • The US ISM manufacturing survey in Feb saw a welcome combination of stronger than expected orders (led by new exports) and production whilst the price component dipped slightly.
  • That said, various sectors continued to report the common theme of strong demand and not enough supply. There appears to be no let up in semiconductors shortages either, key for many industries including autos which have been driving inflation, which entered the 15th month of short supply.
  • Lower than expected prices (75.6 vs 77.5 cons) helped Treasuries firm on the release as they more than offset a selling off on higher price pressures in the finalised Markit PMI just beforehand, but moves have been swallowed up on the day’s broader rally, with front-end and belly yields down 10-11bps, 10Y yields down 8bps and 30Y down 4bps.