EU: Leaders Meet To Discuss Competitiveness & Red Tape
Feb-11 10:49
Two days of meetings between EU leaders get underway today, with a number of heads of gov't/state attending the European Industry Summit in the Belgian city of Antwerp, before heading to an informal summit in Alden Biesen on Thursday, 12 Feb. The focus of the meetings is to discuss EU competitiveness, in particular by cutting red tape and reinforcing the single market.
- German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Belgian PM Bart De Wever, French President Emmanuel Macron, and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen are all due to be in attendance at today's summit.
- As Euronews reports, "The meeting comes as the power dynamic between the industry and the political leadership shifts with a focus on reducing bureaucracy and cutting costs for European companies faced with higher energy costs, tariffs and increasing competition from China."
- Earlier, von der Leyen addressed the European Parliament. In a clear signal of the shift in tone between her first term (2019-24), centred on the European 'Green Deal', and her second (2024-) that has relegated climate change issues in favour of advocating for EU business, VdL said the issue of red-tape was not just an EU-level problem, but something member states need to address as well.
- MNI's Policy team reported on 10 Feb that leaders will "discuss how to encourage startups and ease competition rules to help companies gain scale, as well as a more controversial French proposal to favour European companies in public procurement and how to protect strategic industries from ever more ferocious global competition." See: MNI: EU Leaders To Seek To Protect Firms, Build Scale
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Pullback Appears Corrective
Jan-12 10:45
- In the equity space, the trend structure in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and today’s move down is considered corrective. Price continues to trade above key support at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement and would also highlight a possible short-term reversal. First support is at 6933.61, the 20-day EMA. For bulls, a fresh cycle high on Friday reinforces a bull theme. A resumption of the trend would open 7021.79, the 0.618 projection of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing.
- A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact. Gains last week confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The 6000.00 handle has been breached, signalling scope for 6086.99 next, a 1.236 projection of the Nov 21 - Dec 12 - 18 price swing. Firm support to watch is 5819.97, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective and allow an overbought condition to unwind. First support lies at 5912.00, the Jan 8 low.
AUD: AUDUSD Back Above 0.6700, Sell-US Theme Trumping Weaker Equity Backdrop
Jan-12 10:41
- Risk-off sentiment has been notably dented surrounding the renewed concerns around Fed independence, and while the likes of AUD and NZD might usually be pressured by such a backdrop, the weak dollar theme is driving the price action for most major FX pairs to start the week.
- As such, AUDUSD has retaken the 0.6700 handle and potentially emphasises that last week’s late pullback is very much deemed as corrective, which was allowing an overbought condition to unwind. The area between the 20- and 50-day EMAs represents a key support zone for the pair, with the latter average intersecting at 0.6627.
- JP Morgan have remained bullish on AUD given its relatively attractive carry profile, robust economic backdrop, and sound fiscal position. They do note that the magnitude of the rates sell-off since late 2025 and November’s weaker-than-forecast inflation data have seen rate hike expectations gradually pared back somewhat. With AUDUSD now aligned with their Q1 target, JPM think near-term upside in the exchange rate is more contained although an ongoing decline in USDCNY has the potential to open up more upside and push fair value towards 0.69.
- Westpac consumer confidence due Tuesday and consumer inflation expectations on Thursday highlight this week’s calendar. Key upcoming data points are December employment on Jan 22 and the key Q4 CPI release on Jan 28.
US TSY OPTIONS: USH6 112.00 Puts Lifted
Jan-12 10:34
USH6 112.00 puts paper paid 0-19 on 5K.
