RUSSIA: Lavrov Continues Claims That Ukraine Is Holding Up Peace Process
Aug-21 10:34
Speaking at a press conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgsAUZF8VOc alongside India's Minist...
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LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Regional Fed Mfg/Non-Mfg, Non-Pol Fed Speak
Jul-22 10:34
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 07/22 0730 Fed VC Bowman on CNBC
- 07/22 0830 Fed Chair Powell opening remarks regulatory conf
- 07/22 0830 Philadelphia Fed Non-Mfg Activity (-25.0, --)
- 07/22 1000 Richmond Fed Mfg Index (-7, -2)
- 07/22 1000 Richmond Fed Business Conditions (-16, --)
- 07/22 1130 US Tsy $80B 6W bill auction
- 07/22 1300 Fed VC Bowman fireside chat large bank conf (no text, Q&A)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Bull Cycle Remains In Play
Jul-22 10:33
- In FX, EURUSD has recovered from last week’s 1.1557 low, on Jul 17. Recent weakness is considered corrective. Support to watch lies at the 50day EMA , at 1.1525. A clear break of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. For now, trend indicators continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A stronger resumption of gains would open 1.1829, the Jul 1 high and the bull trigger.
- GBPUSD continues to trade above its recent lows. For now, short-term gains appear corrective and a bear threat remains present. Recent weakness resulted in a break of trendline support currently at 1.3480 - drawn from the Jan 13 low. The breach strengthens a bear theme, exposing 1.3335 next, the May 20 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3517, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a potential base.
- A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place despite the latest pullback and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Recent strength has resulted in a breach of resistance at 148.03, the Jun 23 high, and a move through key resistance at 148.65, the May 12 high. The break strengthens the bullish theme and opens 149.38, 50.0% of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg. On the downside, key short-term support to monitor is 145.85, the 50-day EMA.
FED: Slightly More Hawkish US Rate Path, Fed Regulation Conference In Blackout
Jul-22 10:25
- Fed Funds implied rates are little changed for 2025 meetings, up to 0.5bp higher, after yesterday’s modest range.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp Jul, 15.5bp Sep, 28bp Oct, 44.5bp Dec, 55.5bp Jan and 70.5bp Mar.
- The SOFR implied terminal yield of 3.155% (SFRZ6) sees a slightly larger 2bp uptick but remains within recent ranges.
- Today sees unusually heavy Fedspeak considering its inside the FOMC media blackout period for the Jul 29-30 meeting. As such, it can’t touch upon monetary policy and is instead geared around Fed regulation (conference link here).
- Powell gives welcoming remarks at 0830ET before VC for Supervision Bowman speaks in a fireside chat on innovation with Sam Altman at 1300ET (Q&A only).
- Fed regulation is becoming an increasingly political topic amidst White House administration criticism. Not directly linked but a latest example was US Tsy Sec Bessent on X yesterday: "Today in a CNBC interview, I called for a review of the Federal Reserve. It is my belief that the central bank should conduct an exhaustive internal review of its non-monetary policy operations. Significant mission creep and institutional growth have taken the Fed into areas that potentially jeopardize the independence of its core monetary policy mission. While I have no knowledge or opinion on the legal basis for the massive building renovations being undertaken on Constitution Avenue, a review of the decision to undertake such a project by an institution reporting operating losses of more than $100 billion per year should be conducted.”
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