MEXICO: Latest Inflation Data Should Not Alter Banxico Decision
Nov-09 12:50
- This morning’s release of October inflation data came in marginally below median surveyed estimates which will be welcome news, but should not alter the immediate trajectory for Banxico policy. All surveyed analysts expect central bank to raise the overnight rate by 75bps to 10.00% at the November meeting.
- Continued upward pressure on core inflation and a willingness to match the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance cement the need to maintain an aggressive pace of tightening at this juncture.
- However, given the most recent Banxico rhetoric, the statement will be closely scrutinised for any dovish signals that could pave the way for a deceleration in the hiking pace at coming meetings. Furthermore, a dissenting vote for a smaller hike at this meeting should not be ruled out.
- The full preview with analyst views is here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/documents/20110/MNI%20Banxico%20Preview%20-%20November%202022.pdf
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EURJPY TECHS: Support Lies At The 50-Day EMA
Oct-10 12:47
- RES 4: 147.76 1.236 proj of the May 12 - Jun 28 - Aug 2 price swing
- RES 3: 145.64 High Sep 12 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 144.48 High Sep 14
- RES 1: 144.09 High Oct 5
- PRICE: 141.33 @ 13:44 BST Oct 10
- SUP 1: 140.55 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 139.44/137.40 Low Sep 29 / 26 and key support
- SUP 3: 136.02 Low Aug 25
- SUP 4: 135.52 Low Aug 24
EURJPY has traded lower today. The recent pullback has put prices back below 143.70 resistance - 76.4% of the Sep 12 - 26 downleg. The 50-day EMA, at 140.55, marks the next support. Moving average studies continue to highlight a broader uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 144.09, the Oct 5 high. On the downside, a break of the 50-day EMA would instead strengthen a bearish threat.
INDIA: FM Spox: Concerned At Escalation In Ukraine, Urges Return To Diplomacy
Oct-10 12:45
The Indian Foreign Ministry has said that Delhi is "deeply concerned at escalation of conflict in Ukraine, including targeting of infrastructure and deaths of civilians."
- MFA Spox: "India urges immediate cessation of hostilities and urgent return to path of diplomacy and dialogue [...] India ready to support all efforts aimed at de-escalation."
- India appears increasingly close to expressing outright condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Last month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at a summit in Uzbekistan, attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin that, "now is not the time for war," seen as a signal that India may be prepared to apply more pressure on Russia.
- A meeting between Indian FM Jaishankar and US counterpart Antony Blinken last week was more cordial in tone than previous meetings, with Blinken pledging to improve visa processing for Indian citizens, a sign of concession US may be willing to make to entice India to support a price cap on Russian oil.
- Earlier today Jaishankar said in a presser with Australian FM Penny Wong that he will not disclose how India plans to vote on a UN resolution to condemn Russia this week. Jaishankar: "As a matter of prudence and policy, we don't predict our votes in advance."
BONDS: Yields edge higher
Oct-10 12:31
- Bund tested 137.35 Low Oct 7 (printed 137.32 low),
- While the UK 10yr yield breach the 76.4% retrace of the 28th fall.
In Yield terms for the UK 10s, reference 93.34:
- 4.450% = 92.76
- 4.500% = 92.22
- 4.562% = 91.54 (around level when BoE intervened)
