US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup

• Risk sentiment remained positive late Tuesday, stocks rebounding of this morning's appr 9 month lows after wires rehashed comments from Iran's president regarding terms to end war "must guarantee people's security, interests".
• Markets were wary of taking at face value Trump hinting repeatedly that he could end US military involvement in Iran even with the Strait of Hormuz still closed.
• Additional non-geopolitical support was partially driven by the reversal to dovish from hawkish in projected rate moves.
• Currently, Nasdaq outperforms at +3.5%, SPX eminis +2.45%, the DJIA +2.2%.
• IT sector shares continued to lead advances with the following up 7-10%: ON Semiconductor, Monolithic Power Systems, Sandisk Corp and Microchip Technology Inc.
• Oil and gas shares led declines as crude prices reversed course, WTI fell below $100/bbl briefly from nearly $107/bbl overnight, the following down 3-4.5%: EOG Resources, APA, Devon Energy, ONEOK, Occidental Petroleum Corp, Coterra Energy and Chevron Corp.

No discernable developments in the Middle East war in the last hour, with the dollar and equities drifting sideways awaiting further news. Israeli PM Netanyahu in a speech this evening (quoted by Israel National News and N12) referred vaguely to "new alliances" against Iran:

• “They [Iran] still have the launch capability to threaten us, but they can no longer threaten our existence....The regime in Iran is weaker than ever, and sooner or later we foresee its fall... We have awakened the world to the danger that Iran poses to all of humanity. Today, there is no one who does not understand the magnitude of the danger. In the past, we fought alone, today we fight shoulder to shoulder with the US and create new alliances in the region against the Iranian threat. I hope that I will soon be able to tell you about these alliances."
• Local press reported Netanyahu told a cabinet meeting Tuesday that Israel is forming alliances with various Arab countries against Iran, against the backdrop of a potential US withdrawal from the conflict.
• Separately, Axios's @BarakRavid posts on X.com: "In a brief phone call, President Trump told me "the negotiations with Iran are going well." Asked specifically about the Pakistani-Chinese initiative, Trump didn't criticize it but simply reiterated that the diplomacy was going well".

• RES 4: 161.95 High Jul 3 ‘24 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 161.46 1.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
• RES 2: 160.79 1.500 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
• RES 1: 160.46 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 159.14 @ 17:13 GMT Mar 31  
• SUP 1: 158.63 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 157.37 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 156.46 Low Mar 5 
• SUP 4: 155.85 Low Mar 2 

The trend needle in USDJPY continues to point north and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. The breach of the 160.00 handle strengthens the bullish condition. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 160.79 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 157.37, the 50-day EMA.