US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: 10Y Puts

• The Eurozone unemployment rate continues to paint a very healthy picture of the labour market, falling to a fresh series low of 6.1% on an EA21 basis from 6.2% in December and 6.3% in November. These data are prone to revisions but for now this previously bottomed out at 6.2% in Sep-Dec 2024.
• This improvement has been seen in the older than 25-year-old cohort with young workers struggling in comparison although still with unemployment rates at historically low levels for those entry-level positions that are likely more prone to AI disruption.
• On balance, President Lagarde can still characterise the labour market as she did in last month’s Q&A: it’s still an active with market unemployment almost at rock bottom and certainly not in difficulty. 

• RES 4: 0.8818 High Nov 26 ‘25
• RES 3: 0.8806 76.4% retracement of the Nov 14 - Feb 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8739/89 High Mar 3 / High Feb 27 and key S/T resistance
• RES 1: 0.8654/8693 High Mar 13 / 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8639 @ 16:35 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 0.8610 Low Mar 16 
• SUP 2: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
• SUP 3: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25
• SUP 4: 0.8544 50.0% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull phase 

A bear cycle in EURGBP remains in play and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has pierced support at 0.8613, the Feb 4 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bear theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull phase. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8789, the Feb 27 high. The first important resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 0.8693. 

A new survey from Tipp Insights has indicated “serious erosion in how Americans view the value of higher education,” with nearly 60% of respondents saying a college education is ‘not worth the cost.’ As recently as 2013, a Gallup Poll showed 70% of Americans believed college was worth the price.

• The report notes, “It's yet another segment of American life in which there is surprising unison among different political ideologies: Conservatives (58% not worth it, 29% worth it), moderates (61% not worth it, 21% worth it) and liberals (60% not worth it, 20% worth it).”
• Tipp adds, “Even young people, who once viewed a four-year degree as a golden ticket to a secure comfortable middle-class life, now see college as a financial deadweight that guarantees neither economic success nor upward mobility.”

Figure 1: “Do you believe a four-year college degree is worth the cost for most Americans today, or not?”

Source: I&I/TIPP