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USDJPY TECHS: Reversal Marks The Start Of A Corrective Phase
- RES 4: 159.45 High Jan 14 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 157.42 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 156.24 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 155.35 Intraday high
- PRICE: 153.90 @ 16:07 GMT Jan 26
- SUP 1: 153.31 Low Jan 26
- SUP 2: 152.82 Low Nov 7 ‘25
- SUP 3: 151.98 38.2% of the Apr 22 ‘25 - Jan 14 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 150.99 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 ‘25 low
The sharp pullback in USDJPY brings to an end the recent bull cycle and marks the start of a corrective phase. A sharp reversal Friday and today’s follow through has seen the pair trade through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and potential is seen for a move towards 151.98, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is 156.24, the 50-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: ADP NER Pulse, Cons Confidence, 5Y Note Sale
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 01/27 0815 ADP Weekly NER Pulse, +8k prior
- 01/27 0855 Redbook Retail Sales Index
- 01/27 0900 FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.4%, 0.3%)
- 01/27 0900 S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA (0.32%, 0.20%), YoY (1.31%, 1.20%)
- 01/27 1000 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (-7, -5)
- 01/27 1000 Conference Board Consumer Confidence (89.1, 90.6)
- 01/27 1030 Dallas Fed Services Activity (-3.3, --)
- 01/27 1130 US Tsy $90B 6W bill auction
- 01/27 1300 US Tsy $70B 5Y Note auction (91282CPW5)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 0.8813 76.4% retracement of the Nov 14 - Jan 6 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8797 High Dec 17
- RES 2: 0.8781 61.8% retracement of the Nov 14 - Jan 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8716/46 50-day EMA / High Dec 31 & Jan 21
- PRICE: 0.8680 @ 16:06 GMT Jan 26
- SUP 1: 0.8644 Low Jan 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15
- SUP 3: 0.8620 38.2% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
Friday’s sell-off in EURGBP signals the potential end of a corrective recovery between Jan 6 - 21. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up and this continues to suggest that recent short-term gains are corrective. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 0.8644, the Jan 6 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Key short-term resistance is 0.8746, the Jan 21 high.
