US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Energy, Financials & IT Underperforming

Feb-05 19:50

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GLOBAL MACRO: Global PMIs Point To Limited Upside GDP Momentum At End-2025

Jan-06 19:31

The JPMorgan Global Composite PMI for December showed a slight slowdown in activity (to a 6-month low 52.0 after 52.7 in Nov) but confirming a 50+ reading for a 35th consecutive month. Overall global GDP continues to track a little north of the 3% mark as we end the year, though December's softer PMIs are suggestive of limited upward momentum,

  • Services PMI dipped to the weakest since June in December at 52.4 (53.2), whereas manufacturing was relatively steady (50.4 after 50.5 Nov) but still posted the lowest reading since July.
  • Even so, Services industries were clearly outperforming their Manufacturing counterparts per the report: "All six of the sub-sectors covered by the survey saw output increase during December, with the three services-focused categories (business, consumer and financial) all outperforming their manufacturing counterparts (consumer, intermediate and investment goods)".
  • 11 of 14 countries included in the Composite saw output expansion, led by India, Spain, and Ireland; conversely China, the Eurozone, Japan, Australia and the UK were below the global average. Canada was the only country to show contraction, with France, Italy and Russia relatively flat. The US and Brazil showed slightly above-global-average growth.
  • Softer demand and trade barriers were obstacles to growth. New orders posted a 6-month low; new export orders saw an 8th contraction in 9 months.
  • Employment was flat, while price pressures "saw a mild acceleration" though were more acute for services firms than they were for manufacturers.
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USDJPY TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

Jan-06 19:30
  • RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
  • RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
  • RES 1: 157.89 High Nov 20 and the bull trigger 
  • PRICE: 156.67 @ 16:27 GMT Jan 6 
  • SUP 1: 156.22/155.06 20- and 50-day EMA values
  • SUP 2: 154.35 Low Dec 5 and a bear trigger  
  • SUP 3: 153.62 Low Nov 14 
  • SUP 4: 152.82 Low Nov 7

USDJPY is unchanged. The trend structure is bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Attention is on 157.89, the Nov 20 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the trend. Support to watch lies at 155.06, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper correction.  

US: FED Reverse Repo Operation

Jan-06 19:29

RRP usage recedes to $2.582B with 10 counterparties this afternoon vs. $6.485B Monday. Compares to December 12 low of $0.838B (lowest level since mid-March 2021); this years highest excess liquidity measure: $460.731B on June 30.

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